Could be a small Miami 1 bedroom apartment in it for us but I am starting to warm to this mountain of lead on wheels
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbn9NG1VhPw
FORD
GM gone or going, Chrysler gone or going, Toyota, well it ain't American is it. Obama clearly wants green cars so happy to take over GM and get the team to focus on energy efficient cars at a loss, he has a 10yr plan here, anyway that will mean Ford will be the sole truly independent American car company. They appear the strongest, never asked for money from government, did a recent equity raising. Yes market and consumer broke so no one is buying a car but that's in the price. If we can get Ford back down near $4 (currently $5.25), it could be one of those, put $ into it and never look at it until the Olympics in 2012. Then see if we have $$$$$ worth of Ford shares. Then we buy a $300,000 apartment in Florida with $$$$$$ down. Also Mr Obama will not be able to nationalize all the automakers they will want ONE national symbol of a US car, too much pressure, and trust me 1 in 3 houses in America have an American flag hanging out of the window, so they are very patriotic, not like us Australians that would sell our souls for a hot meat pie and a cold beer. So they will eventually buy America goods again in a patriotic fashion.
Now this goes against everything I believe about consumers not buying anything besides low quality ham and cheese and flour sales going up as they are baking their own bread at home, consumer is on its knees but one day their 10 credit card wallets will open up and Ford could be the, put it in the bottom of your drawer stock that you do not look at until 2012.
Giddy Up
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Jim Morrison
As Jim Morrison said, this could be the end my friend. I see the DOWn hitting 7700 before it's next move up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFK1yKfiGo
Sitting in the bar last night smashing down my usual I got into a discussion that didn't involve Latin women, horse racing or sports gambling so the odds where I was in a discussion way out of my depth.
It's a bull market he said. We have bottomed. You don't want to miss this move. I agreed on a few points, one being that the barmaids blouse had more buttons undone than done, and that a red bra under a white shirt is the only bull sign I can see.
Look every dog has its day and every day has a dog and the last 2 months even I mentioned to not stand in front of this freight train. But now we sell, now we short as this recent run will run out of steam so short it now as we did 2days ago with the triple short banks FAZ.
Foreclosures up 30pct on a year ago. Ah that's bigger then ben hurs undies. The change reaction to that is banks, consumer wealth, confidence will suffer a bit more pain.
Oh and one last point a study in the UK said that 1 in 3 could be effected by the swine flu. Surely that can't be right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyZSckIjp4c
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFK1yKfiGo
Sitting in the bar last night smashing down my usual I got into a discussion that didn't involve Latin women, horse racing or sports gambling so the odds where I was in a discussion way out of my depth.
It's a bull market he said. We have bottomed. You don't want to miss this move. I agreed on a few points, one being that the barmaids blouse had more buttons undone than done, and that a red bra under a white shirt is the only bull sign I can see.
Look every dog has its day and every day has a dog and the last 2 months even I mentioned to not stand in front of this freight train. But now we sell, now we short as this recent run will run out of steam so short it now as we did 2days ago with the triple short banks FAZ.
Foreclosures up 30pct on a year ago. Ah that's bigger then ben hurs undies. The change reaction to that is banks, consumer wealth, confidence will suffer a bit more pain.
Oh and one last point a study in the UK said that 1 in 3 could be effected by the swine flu. Surely that can't be right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyZSckIjp4c
Giddy Up
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Hitman Hatton
After 3 heavy days on the whiskey at the Kentucky Derby and loosing my shirt which thank fully I borrowed from a true friend the day before, I took the bus to downtown Louisville, Kentucky to watch the Hatton fight, and yes you know the rest. Full as a boot on a rainy day I heard a mate call his bookie with the words, give me 2grand on Hatton to win by knockout. I couldn't believe the words that followed from my mouth, can I have 500 of that.
10seconds into round 1 you could hear me yelling out, stop the fight stop the fight someone is going to get killed, yes Ricky the poorly named Hitman Hatton got hit and like GM looked dead.
Leaving the bar I sounded a bit like Pacman in this clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIl8Q_br8bI&NR=1
Nothing but mumbled words strung together in an audible fashion.
Well the markets are like Hitman right now, having shorted OIL at 50 bucks I am nearly out for the count like Ricky but alas we still have cash in the coffers from our earlier plays and today after some sessions to the gym and a step away from the game I have come back to see some amazing opportunities.
GM executives sold shares today, one sold 100,000 shares to collect just over 100K now that is a sign of the captain of the ship yelling out, every man for himself as the captain grabs the last life jacket and jumps. I see banks raising capital and some say that's a good sign, well its a sign of an industry that wants YOU to prop them up, you only sell for 3 reasons, 1 is you think your price will get lower in the future, the other is you need money to survive and the final one is opportunistic, to raise cash to buy other institutions, which when you think about it means you believe other banks will go lower so you want to raise cash now to pounce later. Either way all 3 say short banks for now.
I loaded up on FAZ last night triple short banks and like Ricky Hatton they wont come back to haunt us for awhile.
Giddy Up
10seconds into round 1 you could hear me yelling out, stop the fight stop the fight someone is going to get killed, yes Ricky the poorly named Hitman Hatton got hit and like GM looked dead.
Leaving the bar I sounded a bit like Pacman in this clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIl8Q_br8bI&NR=1
Nothing but mumbled words strung together in an audible fashion.
Well the markets are like Hitman right now, having shorted OIL at 50 bucks I am nearly out for the count like Ricky but alas we still have cash in the coffers from our earlier plays and today after some sessions to the gym and a step away from the game I have come back to see some amazing opportunities.
GM executives sold shares today, one sold 100,000 shares to collect just over 100K now that is a sign of the captain of the ship yelling out, every man for himself as the captain grabs the last life jacket and jumps. I see banks raising capital and some say that's a good sign, well its a sign of an industry that wants YOU to prop them up, you only sell for 3 reasons, 1 is you think your price will get lower in the future, the other is you need money to survive and the final one is opportunistic, to raise cash to buy other institutions, which when you think about it means you believe other banks will go lower so you want to raise cash now to pounce later. Either way all 3 say short banks for now.
I loaded up on FAZ last night triple short banks and like Ricky Hatton they wont come back to haunt us for awhile.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Matador
I know what it is like to feel like a Matador or at least one that is hit by a bull.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq6k6rDVl4A
After aggressively loading up on the triple short banks FAZ I got closed out as it went down like a led balloon, then I check at the close and see FAZ actually finished at the high of the day and the market sold off. It truly felt like a bull had run over me.
Don't worry though market still overvalued, banks have run up like the mess is behind us, when we are actually just reaching the eye of the storm. Unemployment rising + foreclosures to rise = banks loose. Keynesian II.
My friend who creates his own clothes with a very unique style which you could travel the world and not find, is closing down next week. His shirts are better than anything you can find in Manhattan but alas they are priced at $250-$350, which is about the same as a GM car in today's market. So he stood no chance, as we smashed down a few bottles of cheap $5.99 wine (yes 5.99 wine exists) and talked about the fact that talent never dies only dreams get faded, he told me that the rent on the commercial building for the business had not been paid for 3months and prior to that they were paying just as much as they could.
So if you thought we had seen the bottom of commercial property, I don't even think we have seen the start of it, we are not even in the eye of the commercial property storm. Good luck if your a bank lending to the owner of a commercial property.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq6k6rDVl4A
After aggressively loading up on the triple short banks FAZ I got closed out as it went down like a led balloon, then I check at the close and see FAZ actually finished at the high of the day and the market sold off. It truly felt like a bull had run over me.
Don't worry though market still overvalued, banks have run up like the mess is behind us, when we are actually just reaching the eye of the storm. Unemployment rising + foreclosures to rise = banks loose. Keynesian II.
My friend who creates his own clothes with a very unique style which you could travel the world and not find, is closing down next week. His shirts are better than anything you can find in Manhattan but alas they are priced at $250-$350, which is about the same as a GM car in today's market. So he stood no chance, as we smashed down a few bottles of cheap $5.99 wine (yes 5.99 wine exists) and talked about the fact that talent never dies only dreams get faded, he told me that the rent on the commercial building for the business had not been paid for 3months and prior to that they were paying just as much as they could.
So if you thought we had seen the bottom of commercial property, I don't even think we have seen the start of it, we are not even in the eye of the commercial property storm. Good luck if your a bank lending to the owner of a commercial property.
Giddy Up
Monday, April 20, 2009
Is it still a point and shoot?
YES
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Thursday, April 16, 2009
If you want cash then read this
April 27th case schiller index on property values ON MANHATTAN property ipo's. UMM and DMM
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Pupets running the mupets
A nice day yesterday with FAZ triple short banks, up 20pct but I will be closing that out some time today. Bought at 9.15 now 11 will move stop up to 5pct from it's open today.
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Where is the percuito?
Had a great Easters lunch on Sunday, nothing better than eating at another persons place, you bring a 30dollar bottle of wine which gives you the right to smash down at least a bottle of vino, eat for 2hours straight and leave a mess for them to clean. I am now starting to understand the benefits of a house party just as long as they don't use your house.
Anyway I got talking to the biggest food retailer in Manhattan. I asked him how the foot traffic was and I learnt something interesting. Our upstairs sales are not doing well (appliances like kettles etc) but our main business which is food has held up well but we have noticed more people are coming in but they are each spending less.
So I draw this conclusion, if the consumer doesn't need it, they are NOT going to buy it, hence the kettle isn't getting sold. The consumer needs to eat so as they are flat broke and still worried about their job they are NOT going to restaurants, hence the increase in foot traffic. They are not buying as much per person as before, so they must be buying the carrots but not the chocolate candy bars. He also mentioned his 9.99 a pound percuito has been replaced by the 5.99 per pound ham.
So until the percuito is back on the shelves instead of the cheap ham I have decided my shorts are going back on for now.
Giddy Up
Anyway I got talking to the biggest food retailer in Manhattan. I asked him how the foot traffic was and I learnt something interesting. Our upstairs sales are not doing well (appliances like kettles etc) but our main business which is food has held up well but we have noticed more people are coming in but they are each spending less.
So I draw this conclusion, if the consumer doesn't need it, they are NOT going to buy it, hence the kettle isn't getting sold. The consumer needs to eat so as they are flat broke and still worried about their job they are NOT going to restaurants, hence the increase in foot traffic. They are not buying as much per person as before, so they must be buying the carrots but not the chocolate candy bars. He also mentioned his 9.99 a pound percuito has been replaced by the 5.99 per pound ham.
So until the percuito is back on the shelves instead of the cheap ham I have decided my shorts are going back on for now.
Giddy Up
Monday, April 13, 2009
Bluestar luvs.......
anacot steel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
That's right my greed has finally returned. Been waiting for the time to strike on the short side again and thus now is the time. With recent surge in the banks largely due to 1 company wells fargo preannouncing (wonder who told them to do that) the market has now been rushing to cover their bank shorts which has pushed a lot of banks up in the last few days.
That means it's time for me to bring back greed, as greed is good greed is crystal clear. FAZ a triple short on banks is at 9.15 and with a stop at 8.15.
I am prepared to give this one a real shake rattle and roll over the next few days, like a an Egyptian belly dancer, lets shake this one until the music stops and then some. We have banked enough earlier in the year to take a good roll at this one. Can't wait to see the provisions on their commercial real estate portfolios and credit cards. Every day I walk around Manhattan I see shops closing down with "to lease" signs on the window. That is not bullish.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
That's right my greed has finally returned. Been waiting for the time to strike on the short side again and thus now is the time. With recent surge in the banks largely due to 1 company wells fargo preannouncing (wonder who told them to do that) the market has now been rushing to cover their bank shorts which has pushed a lot of banks up in the last few days.
That means it's time for me to bring back greed, as greed is good greed is crystal clear. FAZ a triple short on banks is at 9.15 and with a stop at 8.15.
I am prepared to give this one a real shake rattle and roll over the next few days, like a an Egyptian belly dancer, lets shake this one until the music stops and then some. We have banked enough earlier in the year to take a good roll at this one. Can't wait to see the provisions on their commercial real estate portfolios and credit cards. Every day I walk around Manhattan I see shops closing down with "to lease" signs on the window. That is not bullish.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
news flash.......
If your in a house of glass do not throw stones. I received a lot of flak for saying to short muni's in a recent blog then I stumble over this on CNBC........
In the municipal bond market, traders have been watching the continuing saga of Jefferson County, Alabama sewer bonds."We're waiting on what could potentially be the largest bankruptcy in muni history ... They're supposed to have something out tomorrow," said Peter Delahunt, senior vice president and national sales manager at Raymond James. Delahunt said the county has failed to make counter party payments for some time now and it's possible the deadline could again be postponed. "The insurance companies that are on the hook are pushing for foreclosure so they could take over the sewer system and raise rates, and that may not be politically palatable," he said
But forget about this news flash, nothing is better than Lord Flasheart himself, you have to watch all of this when the boss isn't looking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3jEdW1zYDU&feature=related
Still have not reloaded the market shorts but definately starting to shine the revolver.
Giddy Up
In the municipal bond market, traders have been watching the continuing saga of Jefferson County, Alabama sewer bonds."We're waiting on what could potentially be the largest bankruptcy in muni history ... They're supposed to have something out tomorrow," said Peter Delahunt, senior vice president and national sales manager at Raymond James. Delahunt said the county has failed to make counter party payments for some time now and it's possible the deadline could again be postponed. "The insurance companies that are on the hook are pushing for foreclosure so they could take over the sewer system and raise rates, and that may not be politically palatable," he said
But forget about this news flash, nothing is better than Lord Flasheart himself, you have to watch all of this when the boss isn't looking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3jEdW1zYDU&feature=related
Still have not reloaded the market shorts but definately starting to shine the revolver.
Giddy Up
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Just because its a cartoon
does not mean we can not learn from it............
I always said if it's a cartoon then it's for kids, so yes I have missed out on south park, simpsons and all the Shrek movies. But I caught a recent clip and got to say I was way wrong. Banking and Finance degrees should enter this clip in semester 2 studies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boK7PpWGI50&feature=related
Interesting times we are in right now. China buying up and storing commodities again which is getting some bulls all fired up as they sharpen their pens and reiterate or raise 09 numbers for some of these stocks. Remember the big picture, we are on the brink of a depression which is 10pct GDP contraction and if we do not reach such levels we will definitely be close enough to see over the cliff. UK will go real close to 10pct contraction, Eastern Europe will, Ireland has to give it a nudge, Russia, who knows, Japan will knock on the door. Euro how is that currency holding up above 1 to 1 with the dollar, just rank the developed world with the top 10 most risky countries from a Macro viewpoint and I am tipping most of the names in that risky list buy bread with the Euro. 1.34 currently heading below 1 by years end.
China has the cash to stockpile up and in any effect is finally looking inward and creating internal demand which in the medium term will serve them well as the rest of the world comes out of this mess but in the short term, DOWN. Keep the shorts on FCX we are in the money a lazy 3 bucks on that already and OIL, it has NO business above 50bucks a barrel in this market.
I saw Mr Wagner the CEO of GM was fired by Obama yesterday, watch ya back Mr Lewis the CEO of BAC bank of Obama. They say we don't have nationalisation so who fired Mr Wagner then?
I got rattled today, a portfolio manager mentioned he is finally beating his benchmark, the SP500 after under performing against it in 2008. I nearly fell off my chair and you wanna know why I didn't fall of it, because I was not sitting on one, that's how surprised I was. I said to the PM, do you know what a benchmark is? After a 2minute rant I had to pull him up.
A benchmark is the dumbest trader you will ever find, it's mandate is, don't trade, don't think don't do anything, don't forecast don't go to school and learn econometrics don't put in stop losses don't do, just don't do, just be. That's right a benchmark is stagnant, once your in, its bloody hard to get out, and if you do violate the simple rules like mcap, they only kick you out every 3months, I mean Citi bank is still in benchmarks, kick it out. So how can we not beat the benchmark? Transaction costs? Are you kidding me I can buy 1million shares on scottrade for 7bucks execution. Here let me tell you how to beat a benchmark, put 98pct of your cash in the SP500 ETF and research the crap out of one stock, put the remaining 2pct of your cash in the stock you have picked in the 500 you can choose from, as long as this beats say 250 of them you have outperformed the benchmark. Call yourself a hedge fund after one of the billion stars in the sky or after some greek god say, Apolo, investors love that stuff, hire two kids in colleague studying some physics degree, the likes NASA go for, don't put them on full time of course just give them a case of beer and ask them if you can put them down on your company website and away you go. Then on your CV you put that you ran a fund, beat the benchmark with a quantitative focus combined with an alpha overlay. Sounds impressive and all is true.
I still do not know why we have benchmarks and how MSCI can make so much cash in these things when all they are used for is so someone can say I beat it or I did not when trying to raise cash. Your benchmark should be do you have more money to trade with today than you did this time last year. Why not use Berkshire Hathaway as a benchmark if he is the smartest guy in the room for a value investor, so if you run a value fund why isn't his company your benchmark, he trades, he buys and sells. We spend money on these benchmarks then we spend money on sophisticated risk models that tell us why we have deviated from the benchmark (the dumb trader) and where the risks may be? Think about that for a second we buy more tools to tell us why we didn't perform like the benchmark? Just be smart make good decisions and make money, keep it simple. But alas how can you increase assets under management if you don't sound sophisticated and use vendor benchmarks and vendor risk models and hire PhD's as they say, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it must be a duck. So lets keep using these easy to beat benchmarks and buy tools to explain the risks we are taking by making small bets against these benchmarks and let's be ducks.
I have not put on my overall market shorts again, still waiting to reload that gun, but OIL and FCX I am short short short.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4joUa_IE3c&NR=1
I always said if it's a cartoon then it's for kids, so yes I have missed out on south park, simpsons and all the Shrek movies. But I caught a recent clip and got to say I was way wrong. Banking and Finance degrees should enter this clip in semester 2 studies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boK7PpWGI50&feature=related
Interesting times we are in right now. China buying up and storing commodities again which is getting some bulls all fired up as they sharpen their pens and reiterate or raise 09 numbers for some of these stocks. Remember the big picture, we are on the brink of a depression which is 10pct GDP contraction and if we do not reach such levels we will definitely be close enough to see over the cliff. UK will go real close to 10pct contraction, Eastern Europe will, Ireland has to give it a nudge, Russia, who knows, Japan will knock on the door. Euro how is that currency holding up above 1 to 1 with the dollar, just rank the developed world with the top 10 most risky countries from a Macro viewpoint and I am tipping most of the names in that risky list buy bread with the Euro. 1.34 currently heading below 1 by years end.
China has the cash to stockpile up and in any effect is finally looking inward and creating internal demand which in the medium term will serve them well as the rest of the world comes out of this mess but in the short term, DOWN. Keep the shorts on FCX we are in the money a lazy 3 bucks on that already and OIL, it has NO business above 50bucks a barrel in this market.
I saw Mr Wagner the CEO of GM was fired by Obama yesterday, watch ya back Mr Lewis the CEO of BAC bank of Obama. They say we don't have nationalisation so who fired Mr Wagner then?
I got rattled today, a portfolio manager mentioned he is finally beating his benchmark, the SP500 after under performing against it in 2008. I nearly fell off my chair and you wanna know why I didn't fall of it, because I was not sitting on one, that's how surprised I was. I said to the PM, do you know what a benchmark is? After a 2minute rant I had to pull him up.
A benchmark is the dumbest trader you will ever find, it's mandate is, don't trade, don't think don't do anything, don't forecast don't go to school and learn econometrics don't put in stop losses don't do, just don't do, just be. That's right a benchmark is stagnant, once your in, its bloody hard to get out, and if you do violate the simple rules like mcap, they only kick you out every 3months, I mean Citi bank is still in benchmarks, kick it out. So how can we not beat the benchmark? Transaction costs? Are you kidding me I can buy 1million shares on scottrade for 7bucks execution. Here let me tell you how to beat a benchmark, put 98pct of your cash in the SP500 ETF and research the crap out of one stock, put the remaining 2pct of your cash in the stock you have picked in the 500 you can choose from, as long as this beats say 250 of them you have outperformed the benchmark. Call yourself a hedge fund after one of the billion stars in the sky or after some greek god say, Apolo, investors love that stuff, hire two kids in colleague studying some physics degree, the likes NASA go for, don't put them on full time of course just give them a case of beer and ask them if you can put them down on your company website and away you go. Then on your CV you put that you ran a fund, beat the benchmark with a quantitative focus combined with an alpha overlay. Sounds impressive and all is true.
I still do not know why we have benchmarks and how MSCI can make so much cash in these things when all they are used for is so someone can say I beat it or I did not when trying to raise cash. Your benchmark should be do you have more money to trade with today than you did this time last year. Why not use Berkshire Hathaway as a benchmark if he is the smartest guy in the room for a value investor, so if you run a value fund why isn't his company your benchmark, he trades, he buys and sells. We spend money on these benchmarks then we spend money on sophisticated risk models that tell us why we have deviated from the benchmark (the dumb trader) and where the risks may be? Think about that for a second we buy more tools to tell us why we didn't perform like the benchmark? Just be smart make good decisions and make money, keep it simple. But alas how can you increase assets under management if you don't sound sophisticated and use vendor benchmarks and vendor risk models and hire PhD's as they say, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it must be a duck. So lets keep using these easy to beat benchmarks and buy tools to explain the risks we are taking by making small bets against these benchmarks and let's be ducks.
I have not put on my overall market shorts again, still waiting to reload that gun, but OIL and FCX I am short short short.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4joUa_IE3c&NR=1
Monday, March 30, 2009
walking on sunshine
Great time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, days get longer, skies look bluer, tennis rackets come out, women wear less to work and the best of all, the horses gear up for the main events like the Kentucky Derby. The best smell in the world is cut grass but alas none of that hear in NYC. But the next thing to be cut is stock prices.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eONhto0x_nI&feature=related
What is oil doing above 50 dollars again, I am shorting that no demand for energy outside grain in 2009. Speaking of grain have you ever eaten Fennel Seeds, got some the other day, great to chew on if you like a licorice type taste, cheap as chips so passes the recession proof test but luv the taste, it also helps you digest foods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xvnN8HGwKc
The China story is still being talked up, but every developed nation around China is falling over, Japan, NZ, Australia all getting bitten by the recession bug and somehow they still forecast 7pct growth in China in 2009, NO CHANCE. They produce and the rest of the world buys, well we ain't buying. America propping up defunct banks but the rest of the world will not and cant due to the ability to raise cash in their currencies and also due to the size of their banks relative to their economies. So global banks to fall over or get taken over while the US props them up only to realise they have made a mistake.
Time to reload my shorts after weeks on the sidelines, unemployment racing above 10pct in the USA and it will not be out of breath when it gets there. SRS, BGZ, it could even be time to short individual stocks that have ran up like, FCX. It deals in copper which has raced up recently, all I know is copper goes into pipes which goes into construction and I have not seen ANY of that going on, must be China buying stuff and putting it into holes again for later use, either way its run its course at 41 bucks a share, short that.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eONhto0x_nI&feature=related
What is oil doing above 50 dollars again, I am shorting that no demand for energy outside grain in 2009. Speaking of grain have you ever eaten Fennel Seeds, got some the other day, great to chew on if you like a licorice type taste, cheap as chips so passes the recession proof test but luv the taste, it also helps you digest foods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xvnN8HGwKc
The China story is still being talked up, but every developed nation around China is falling over, Japan, NZ, Australia all getting bitten by the recession bug and somehow they still forecast 7pct growth in China in 2009, NO CHANCE. They produce and the rest of the world buys, well we ain't buying. America propping up defunct banks but the rest of the world will not and cant due to the ability to raise cash in their currencies and also due to the size of their banks relative to their economies. So global banks to fall over or get taken over while the US props them up only to realise they have made a mistake.
Time to reload my shorts after weeks on the sidelines, unemployment racing above 10pct in the USA and it will not be out of breath when it gets there. SRS, BGZ, it could even be time to short individual stocks that have ran up like, FCX. It deals in copper which has raced up recently, all I know is copper goes into pipes which goes into construction and I have not seen ANY of that going on, must be China buying stuff and putting it into holes again for later use, either way its run its course at 41 bucks a share, short that.
Giddy Up
Monday, March 23, 2009
Muni's
Municipal bonds, never really dealt with them, they are as exciting as watching paint dry on a cold day in the middle of a snow storm. But I did a bit of research today. Muni's are basically how local governments and cities fund their growth. Issue a muni, grab the cash spend half on things they don't need and waste the other half on things they need but don't know how to build.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm1Jyusyoqk&feature=related
Anyway a triple A Muni has about 0pct chance of default history says and all classes of Munis right down to non-investment grade historically all together only default around .2pct so as safe as chips.
Now here is a thought, governments, states, cities and consumers all have one thing in common, we ALL geared up massively in 2000-2006 when we all had jobs if we wanted one. Now we all have one thing in common and I use the term "we all" loosely here, massive debt and no real way to pay it off. So why are munis any different? When tax receipts were at all time highs and unemployment at 6pct in 2006 these instruments looked safe, now with tax receipts going way way down as unemployment races to 10pct how do these leveraged cities pay the interest due on these muni's? Maybe hire less people, less fireman etc but that just puts us back in the same downward spiral.
Over 3,000 of these instruments were in default in 1935
Nearly 90% of the 310 cities with populations of over 30,000 were rated Aaa in 1929. Nearly 98% of this same group were rated Aa or better. Of all defaulting issues, 48.1% were Aaa rated in 1929 and 78.0% were rated Aa or better.
The fact is they can't, short munis.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm1Jyusyoqk&feature=related
Anyway a triple A Muni has about 0pct chance of default history says and all classes of Munis right down to non-investment grade historically all together only default around .2pct so as safe as chips.
Now here is a thought, governments, states, cities and consumers all have one thing in common, we ALL geared up massively in 2000-2006 when we all had jobs if we wanted one. Now we all have one thing in common and I use the term "we all" loosely here, massive debt and no real way to pay it off. So why are munis any different? When tax receipts were at all time highs and unemployment at 6pct in 2006 these instruments looked safe, now with tax receipts going way way down as unemployment races to 10pct how do these leveraged cities pay the interest due on these muni's? Maybe hire less people, less fireman etc but that just puts us back in the same downward spiral.
Over 3,000 of these instruments were in default in 1935
Nearly 90% of the 310 cities with populations of over 30,000 were rated Aaa in 1929. Nearly 98% of this same group were rated Aa or better. Of all defaulting issues, 48.1% were Aaa rated in 1929 and 78.0% were rated Aa or better.
The fact is they can't, short munis.
Giddy Up
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The best ever warning sign
Yesterday Mr Bernakie told us what he really thinks about the global economy. Not sure if you heard it he said we will have massive unemployment, asset deflation and servere bankruptcies both on a country level and consumer level. You might have missed it you might have heard him say we are buying 1trillion in treasuries to artificially lower the interest rates to make you guys borrow more to TRY and prevent the above scenario, you may have heard a bullish tone, a reason to buy stocks. Remember interest rates should have built in a risk premium and in todays market with rates so low and the borrower such a risk, I dont see much risk premium at all. So I dont see this as a bullish sign I saw it as Bernakie telling us what he really knows and thinks, don't act on what one says, act on what one does and Ben told me we in a real pickle and its bigger than we ALL thought.
But we can still make money in this environment just keep looking at the trees and judge them individually dont just see the forest.
Giddy Up
But we can still make money in this environment just keep looking at the trees and judge them individually dont just see the forest.
Giddy Up
Monday, March 16, 2009
The good, the bad and the.........
What an amazing performance by the banks last week, yeah we cashed a lazy 30pct profit and left the crumbs for the others but WOW. And I am not referring to the price movement of FAS the triple long financials we spoke about last week, to get on that wave and ride it home but WOW about the synchronised performance of the banks.
The bad, BAC came out and said we are making profits, than the ugly CITI, came out and said, can you believe it we too are making profits and even the good JPM joined in this magnificent synchronised performance.
Better organised than the vocals of the Brooklyn under 16 Christmas pageant of 2008.
The Canadian synchronised gold medal swimmers of 1988 would have even clapped at this effort by the banks. The fact that I can remember this gold medal not even I can explain but 88 was a big year for me as Australia celebrated 200 years of existence since our first convicts landed, so I remember a lot in that year, my mind was a sponge. And Bernanke on 60minutes last night giving us a forecast that we could be out of recession by the end of the year. That's a big call Mr Bernanke I mean that would in effect be the largest recession since the post war era so your not really sticking your neck out there and I do remember you said in 2007 that housing was not a bubble and the effects are contained, but alas I still like you, I think you get it now.
But the good, the bad and the ugly all teamed up last week but we all know what happened in the end of that movie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXldafIl5DQ
But this made me think again, something I have not done for a few days, and as the king once sang to us, it brought up this little reminder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBmAPYkPeYU
Tread carefully if your all of a sudden bullish, don't forget where we are, where we came from and where we are heading. The banking index is down 70pct from its highs at todays level and that includes the recent run. Dont forget the big picture of this economic downturn we are in, Eastern Europe in turmoil, banks to roll over, Ireland in trouble, unemployment to hit 10pct in USA comfortably, commercial property to fall off a cliff, still.
Giddy Up
The bad, BAC came out and said we are making profits, than the ugly CITI, came out and said, can you believe it we too are making profits and even the good JPM joined in this magnificent synchronised performance.
Better organised than the vocals of the Brooklyn under 16 Christmas pageant of 2008.
The Canadian synchronised gold medal swimmers of 1988 would have even clapped at this effort by the banks. The fact that I can remember this gold medal not even I can explain but 88 was a big year for me as Australia celebrated 200 years of existence since our first convicts landed, so I remember a lot in that year, my mind was a sponge. And Bernanke on 60minutes last night giving us a forecast that we could be out of recession by the end of the year. That's a big call Mr Bernanke I mean that would in effect be the largest recession since the post war era so your not really sticking your neck out there and I do remember you said in 2007 that housing was not a bubble and the effects are contained, but alas I still like you, I think you get it now.
But the good, the bad and the ugly all teamed up last week but we all know what happened in the end of that movie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXldafIl5DQ
But this made me think again, something I have not done for a few days, and as the king once sang to us, it brought up this little reminder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBmAPYkPeYU
Tread carefully if your all of a sudden bullish, don't forget where we are, where we came from and where we are heading. The banking index is down 70pct from its highs at todays level and that includes the recent run. Dont forget the big picture of this economic downturn we are in, Eastern Europe in turmoil, banks to roll over, Ireland in trouble, unemployment to hit 10pct in USA comfortably, commercial property to fall off a cliff, still.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
The only time the word hope made sense
Bob Hope, its the only time the word hope could either make you laugh or make you cash. This short clip is over 60yrs old but was before its time, they are either talking about citibank, our current policies, or all of the above.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWpU8sX10_4
I got scared again today and its the 2nd time I have been long this year and the 2nd time I have felt scared. So FAS was closed out today, 20pct upside yesterday and a lazy and unconvincing 8pct today and to you mathematicians out there that's more than 28pct on the original and if your not sure why, than that also explains why banks SHOULD make money on us small folks if they stuck to what they were built for. Plenty of easy money to be made in this world, we just need to keep it simple, like bottled water and hamburgers, keep it simple.
Well in my ground research work today I asked a few cowboys that were bullish their exit strategies, 4 out of the 5 gave answers like, 50pct gain and this kind of pie in the sky stuff. I then asked 8 shorts what their exit strategies were (more shorts as surprisingly there were more of them) 6 gave very good responses, some looking for the day unemployment hits 10pct, a few said when the first bank is fully nationalised another said when more than 30pct of commercial property in Manhattan is vacant or in 3mth arrears, but I cant believe I left him before asking how or what index do you track that on and another said when civil war breaks out in either Eastern Europe, or real unrest in China or even Iran got a mention. Anyway the point is the shorts have a strategy, a purpose, know what they are looking for and as such appears to be the smart money, the longs are just your every day chap that thinks the DOWn is 50pct cheaper than it was 18months ago so it must go up, mmmmm not much conviction or purpose there, more like a gamblers mentality, I bet if I asked him if I had 8blacks in a row on a roulette wheel and you had one bet to make would it be red or black, I am tipping he would have taken red. Another to her credit actually stuck the neck out and called a stock to be long, SBUX. Well I went past one on the way back home and decided to give the coffee burners a shot. I asked for single express (10cents to make, I am talking the beans here), and a small latte which they very well markedly call, tall, I find it insulting actually as I know straight out of the gate I am in a shop that has fully tried to bluff me the moment I ask for a small and they say you mean tall. Anyway a latte would cost about 30cents to make I think, tops. The bill came to 5.65 USD, which is a 30minute massage in Thailand and they don't just rub your back down there, its a totally different meaning to the word, full body down there. I can understand over paying for say a Prada bag as it may give off some kind of image or something I don't know but I get it, but coffee, nah I ain't having that. So SBUX not for me, not going long that. Very easy to dismiss that thesis.
So alas this dead cat bounce which we have made a nice little earner from is one to now stay away from, if it rips another 10pct good on it, we have a better risk premium to short it with. Go long from here if you would bet a red after 9 blacks in a row, otherwise lets smoke a peace pipe on this market for a little while and wait for the paint to dry then it will tell us when to strike. So I am all back in cash again.
Oh I will sleep better tonight knowing I am no longer long.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWpU8sX10_4
I got scared again today and its the 2nd time I have been long this year and the 2nd time I have felt scared. So FAS was closed out today, 20pct upside yesterday and a lazy and unconvincing 8pct today and to you mathematicians out there that's more than 28pct on the original and if your not sure why, than that also explains why banks SHOULD make money on us small folks if they stuck to what they were built for. Plenty of easy money to be made in this world, we just need to keep it simple, like bottled water and hamburgers, keep it simple.
Well in my ground research work today I asked a few cowboys that were bullish their exit strategies, 4 out of the 5 gave answers like, 50pct gain and this kind of pie in the sky stuff. I then asked 8 shorts what their exit strategies were (more shorts as surprisingly there were more of them) 6 gave very good responses, some looking for the day unemployment hits 10pct, a few said when the first bank is fully nationalised another said when more than 30pct of commercial property in Manhattan is vacant or in 3mth arrears, but I cant believe I left him before asking how or what index do you track that on and another said when civil war breaks out in either Eastern Europe, or real unrest in China or even Iran got a mention. Anyway the point is the shorts have a strategy, a purpose, know what they are looking for and as such appears to be the smart money, the longs are just your every day chap that thinks the DOWn is 50pct cheaper than it was 18months ago so it must go up, mmmmm not much conviction or purpose there, more like a gamblers mentality, I bet if I asked him if I had 8blacks in a row on a roulette wheel and you had one bet to make would it be red or black, I am tipping he would have taken red. Another to her credit actually stuck the neck out and called a stock to be long, SBUX. Well I went past one on the way back home and decided to give the coffee burners a shot. I asked for single express (10cents to make, I am talking the beans here), and a small latte which they very well markedly call, tall, I find it insulting actually as I know straight out of the gate I am in a shop that has fully tried to bluff me the moment I ask for a small and they say you mean tall. Anyway a latte would cost about 30cents to make I think, tops. The bill came to 5.65 USD, which is a 30minute massage in Thailand and they don't just rub your back down there, its a totally different meaning to the word, full body down there. I can understand over paying for say a Prada bag as it may give off some kind of image or something I don't know but I get it, but coffee, nah I ain't having that. So SBUX not for me, not going long that. Very easy to dismiss that thesis.
So alas this dead cat bounce which we have made a nice little earner from is one to now stay away from, if it rips another 10pct good on it, we have a better risk premium to short it with. Go long from here if you would bet a red after 9 blacks in a row, otherwise lets smoke a peace pipe on this market for a little while and wait for the paint to dry then it will tell us when to strike. So I am all back in cash again.
Oh I will sleep better tonight knowing I am no longer long.
Giddy Up
Its better to be lucky than smart
Well after we booked 60pct gains in Feb when global markets fell double digits, we were lucky yesterday to be long FAS and even though it jumped out of the gate up 15pct before we could strike we rode the last 20pct up on the triple long financials, getting to be very predictable this market we just need to be patient and let the extreme events occur and its vital to watch CNBC with the volume off. Not many can buy when it opens 15pct up your told to wait for a pull back, well if you want to ride the ultimate wave be prepared to pay the ultimate price.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2vkwy2vdP4
Great movie point break if you have forgotten it, go get it, for 10years I wanted to be a bank robber after watching that movie and surf, well I robbed banks yesterday by buying FAS even though I have written for months stating their demise. This is what I would have said to you if you missed the opportunity
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fh0KcpYeMVQ
It is better to be lucky than smart but the smarter you are the luckier you are but the more text book you think the more vulnerable you are. Everything in life should be broken down to a simple form and if you can do that you have something, just like Einstein did when creating the atom bomb. Unfortunately the higher educational guys, the PhD's the Masters and all that can't break things down they are taught to build them up to some sophisticated model. So when a lucky hedge fund guy driving home from work saw the foreclosure signs in California 2years ago start to increase in the streets he drives on, he joined the dots very quickly and saw the house of cards about to unravel and made cash on CDS. When the PhD guy drove home he was texting his mates on the IPHONE about the model he built and how it was so complex, you see the foreclosures just wasn't appearing in his numbers yet he needed a few more data points to be statistically significant and so he ignored the noise. Well if a girl at the bar says to me, piss off I don't want to talk to you, I don't need any more of those data points to draw a conclusion, trust me its statistically significant if its a STRONG signal. You only need one of those data points.
So lets continue to be lucky and play this simple game, keep the triple long financials on but every day now going forward I think I am wrong. Every morning when I wake up I feel slightly sad, because I know I am about to try and prove why I am wrong and no one likes to be wrong every day. Its a tough way to live life but its profitable.
If I cant prove that I am wrong than it means I must be right, and therefore made money.
But as soon as I prove I am actually wrong I have a chance to save my money and not only that feel great as I am now right. Think about that for a second its actually the perfect hedge, I have hedged life as I am only disappointed when I cant prove that I am wrong, which means I am therefore right and I have more chance of being lucky.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2vkwy2vdP4
Great movie point break if you have forgotten it, go get it, for 10years I wanted to be a bank robber after watching that movie and surf, well I robbed banks yesterday by buying FAS even though I have written for months stating their demise. This is what I would have said to you if you missed the opportunity
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fh0KcpYeMVQ
It is better to be lucky than smart but the smarter you are the luckier you are but the more text book you think the more vulnerable you are. Everything in life should be broken down to a simple form and if you can do that you have something, just like Einstein did when creating the atom bomb. Unfortunately the higher educational guys, the PhD's the Masters and all that can't break things down they are taught to build them up to some sophisticated model. So when a lucky hedge fund guy driving home from work saw the foreclosure signs in California 2years ago start to increase in the streets he drives on, he joined the dots very quickly and saw the house of cards about to unravel and made cash on CDS. When the PhD guy drove home he was texting his mates on the IPHONE about the model he built and how it was so complex, you see the foreclosures just wasn't appearing in his numbers yet he needed a few more data points to be statistically significant and so he ignored the noise. Well if a girl at the bar says to me, piss off I don't want to talk to you, I don't need any more of those data points to draw a conclusion, trust me its statistically significant if its a STRONG signal. You only need one of those data points.
So lets continue to be lucky and play this simple game, keep the triple long financials on but every day now going forward I think I am wrong. Every morning when I wake up I feel slightly sad, because I know I am about to try and prove why I am wrong and no one likes to be wrong every day. Its a tough way to live life but its profitable.
If I cant prove that I am wrong than it means I must be right, and therefore made money.
But as soon as I prove I am actually wrong I have a chance to save my money and not only that feel great as I am now right. Think about that for a second its actually the perfect hedge, I have hedged life as I am only disappointed when I cant prove that I am wrong, which means I am therefore right and I have more chance of being lucky.
Giddy Up
Monday, March 9, 2009
bobby bad fingers
Well I couldn't believe it when I heard the term decoupling mentioned again, like pink football boots I thought I had seen and heard the end of that.
You have to be kidding, we are more interlinked than the jewelry on the queen of Sheba's wrists and here is your proof. A few days ago I had a christening to attend so I went to a toy store to buy a gift and a religious card, well the toy was made in Taiwan the card was made in Mexico, I used my HSBC card which stands for, Hong Kong & Shanghai banking corp, the guy who runs the store is from Pakistan, I am Australian my girlfriend is from Honduras, we live in NYC and the parents of the child, one is from England the other is from America. Finally something from America. Decoupling are you kidding the only thing that has decoupled are bobby bad fingers and his thumbs but even they get together every now and then, spend 10minutes of your life on youtube searching his stuff you wont be disappointed and if there is one thing this great nation of America is good for its creating characters like this guy, best exports we have really and a lot more useful than a GM warranty.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPv7gXKMjQ
If you want to ever fire me up mention the term decoupling in a serious sentence. Well before they said China wont be affected by Americas slow down, now that's been buried they say China will grow while America doesn't, good luck with that thesis. Yeah they might FINALLY create an internal demand as the ROW has stopped buying from them but I wouldn't call it decoupling not in today's world.
With a meeting scheduled on Thursday regarding banks and mark to market which shouldn't be changed but WILL be changed. You may want to get some FAS triple long financials but don't hang on to them like a big 36D women as you will end up having your heart broken. Be in and out like a bank robber as that's how you will feel. Mark to market, last year they said it was wrong as it didn't value the assets properly as there was no market, you want to know why a year ago we had no market for it, well check the price today, that's why, it was crap. Anyway it shouldn't be change, any major bank like Citi or BAC that needs a rule change on one major instrument to help them survives just hides the cracks we have in risk control, greed and all that jazz. Anyway lets just follow the herd on this one but get out before you get mad cow.
Giddy Up
You have to be kidding, we are more interlinked than the jewelry on the queen of Sheba's wrists and here is your proof. A few days ago I had a christening to attend so I went to a toy store to buy a gift and a religious card, well the toy was made in Taiwan the card was made in Mexico, I used my HSBC card which stands for, Hong Kong & Shanghai banking corp, the guy who runs the store is from Pakistan, I am Australian my girlfriend is from Honduras, we live in NYC and the parents of the child, one is from England the other is from America. Finally something from America. Decoupling are you kidding the only thing that has decoupled are bobby bad fingers and his thumbs but even they get together every now and then, spend 10minutes of your life on youtube searching his stuff you wont be disappointed and if there is one thing this great nation of America is good for its creating characters like this guy, best exports we have really and a lot more useful than a GM warranty.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPv7gXKMjQ
If you want to ever fire me up mention the term decoupling in a serious sentence. Well before they said China wont be affected by Americas slow down, now that's been buried they say China will grow while America doesn't, good luck with that thesis. Yeah they might FINALLY create an internal demand as the ROW has stopped buying from them but I wouldn't call it decoupling not in today's world.
With a meeting scheduled on Thursday regarding banks and mark to market which shouldn't be changed but WILL be changed. You may want to get some FAS triple long financials but don't hang on to them like a big 36D women as you will end up having your heart broken. Be in and out like a bank robber as that's how you will feel. Mark to market, last year they said it was wrong as it didn't value the assets properly as there was no market, you want to know why a year ago we had no market for it, well check the price today, that's why, it was crap. Anyway it shouldn't be change, any major bank like Citi or BAC that needs a rule change on one major instrument to help them survives just hides the cracks we have in risk control, greed and all that jazz. Anyway lets just follow the herd on this one but get out before you get mad cow.
Giddy Up
Cat Stevens
It's not time to make a change, your so young its not your fault, find a girl settle down........
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29YR5-t3gg&feature=related
Well lets pull our heads in and not go to far but I have had my first bullish sign in years. But like mum in a toy store, I still aint buying.
I made a stock list today, kind of a watch list and trust me the only thing I have watched in the last 2 years are horse races and girls. So I thought I don't want stocks that need to roll over debt in atleast 2yrs maybe 3, have little debt, cashed up, and sell something that in years to come should still have a need, ah if only brothels were listed on an exchange.
Well I found 10 and 8 were tech stocks which then got me started on the subject of diversification a common requirement for an investor that doesn't know what there doing. You see to diversify is to spread risk and that's where I raised my hand in economics. I still remember that day it was 40degrees and our lecturer was sweating like a hooded first time rapist. Well I asked in class if I'm a fund manager and paid to research and invest why should I feel the need to diversify is it because I'm no good and don't have conviction in my thoughts. No he said its to spread risk. I left the class puzzled and to a degree I still em. Anyway the point here is if your good don't diversify, if I find stocks that are worth investing in and they are largely tech then why should I not just own them. I'm in this to make money not to limit risk, by being smart you limit risk, by understanding who you are and how your emotions take over than you have limited risk. Oh and how about fund of funds don't get me started on these fees of fees.
Which brings me to a recent discussion on Bernie and how he was the blame for the 50billion scandal. Well I felt like a guy that walked into a lesbian birthday party when I said, what did he do wrong. Why is he at fault, we have had criminals since Adam bit the apple and I hate to tell ya were gonna have them in the future as well, and I should know as my country Australia was built on criminals, an entire nation built on chicken theives. Put humans and cash together and you don't always get gravy. So Bernie wasn't the issue I was trying to point out, it was the system, the fund of funds due dilligence or lack of, the SEC and so on not Bernie, actually he has educated us opened our eyes to a poorly run system. But that won't stop me from making my watch list of stocks, they say do accounting and economics to understand stocks and scrutinise a balance sheet, I say do phycology understand humans first and put that in a risk model.
Giddy up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29YR5-t3gg&feature=related
Well lets pull our heads in and not go to far but I have had my first bullish sign in years. But like mum in a toy store, I still aint buying.
I made a stock list today, kind of a watch list and trust me the only thing I have watched in the last 2 years are horse races and girls. So I thought I don't want stocks that need to roll over debt in atleast 2yrs maybe 3, have little debt, cashed up, and sell something that in years to come should still have a need, ah if only brothels were listed on an exchange.
Well I found 10 and 8 were tech stocks which then got me started on the subject of diversification a common requirement for an investor that doesn't know what there doing. You see to diversify is to spread risk and that's where I raised my hand in economics. I still remember that day it was 40degrees and our lecturer was sweating like a hooded first time rapist. Well I asked in class if I'm a fund manager and paid to research and invest why should I feel the need to diversify is it because I'm no good and don't have conviction in my thoughts. No he said its to spread risk. I left the class puzzled and to a degree I still em. Anyway the point here is if your good don't diversify, if I find stocks that are worth investing in and they are largely tech then why should I not just own them. I'm in this to make money not to limit risk, by being smart you limit risk, by understanding who you are and how your emotions take over than you have limited risk. Oh and how about fund of funds don't get me started on these fees of fees.
Which brings me to a recent discussion on Bernie and how he was the blame for the 50billion scandal. Well I felt like a guy that walked into a lesbian birthday party when I said, what did he do wrong. Why is he at fault, we have had criminals since Adam bit the apple and I hate to tell ya were gonna have them in the future as well, and I should know as my country Australia was built on criminals, an entire nation built on chicken theives. Put humans and cash together and you don't always get gravy. So Bernie wasn't the issue I was trying to point out, it was the system, the fund of funds due dilligence or lack of, the SEC and so on not Bernie, actually he has educated us opened our eyes to a poorly run system. But that won't stop me from making my watch list of stocks, they say do accounting and economics to understand stocks and scrutinise a balance sheet, I say do phycology understand humans first and put that in a risk model.
Giddy up
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Lightning Strike
As I sip on my double malt whisky this morning and the markets are down again a sudden wave of reality hits me in the face like a hot latino does in a dark night club when approached. Any guy that can tame a latino is a true reflection of a man.
Well its Tim the tax dodger Geithner, where is he?? The kid after being booed in his first ever school play is out trying to get it right, Tim is talking to everyone, his old Goldman mates, his first school teacher and is getting the detail and the balance right for his next speech on the banks and that scares me as a short, the boy is THINKING and that scares me. Paulson didn't think nor did Bush they reacted over weekends with 1page TARPs to solve a decade issue, I want our leaders to think about 2010 and beyond and write off 2009, the previous cowboys literally acted like they were looking at their stock portfolios and made decisions on that. Lets face it, citi and BOA need to be nationalised, we are going to hit 10pct unemployment in the US so lets face it and look beyond with policy. Lightning has struck, Tim is gonna do a performance better than Angus of ACDC http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wWKqXf2rhE&feature=related), and as I am short I am scared, its the same feeling I get when an English soccer player takes a penalty in an important knock out match and I am not even English. I just feel the tension in the bars when watching an England game and it transcends through your body, every time I see Beckham on TV I think of that kick he missed against Portugal and what about John Terry for Chelsea in the champions league final last year the poor kid puts 4 lumps of sugar in his coffee now, he is still that bitter and just cant get the sour taste out of his mouth. Well thats how I feel about being short now and if I feel that so do other shorts and they will cover for now. Psychology says cover shorts, fundamentally I know we go lower. So emotion being short term usually rules so I close today.
This does not change the general thesis of, banks to roll over, eastern europe to sink, china to jail protesters and so on, this is just a lightning bolt that says I take the shorts off, bank our near 60pct profit in a month and reload the gun for a later day. If you dont eat it or shot it or even better both, you just cant go long it right now.
If your a junkie that needs real action then get yourself some triple longs BGU trading at 15 and change but with a tight stop. Personally not for me I rather bank the 60pct and wait and see if I can short again at a better entry. I cant personally go long with so much to still unravel. Look at the poor Sri Lankan cricket team today being shot at and wounded, if you ever need a reminder of the times and unrest there it is. And trust me this kind of action has a much bigger agenda they are trying to trigger off, maybe to get some neighbouring countries to start yelling at each other then eventually start something big, can you imagine if India didn't call off that tour, thats why Sri Lanka went, because India cancelled, I dont like that, seems like plan A didnt get cancelled, maybe Gold has a shine on it again?
Giddy Up
Well its Tim the tax dodger Geithner, where is he?? The kid after being booed in his first ever school play is out trying to get it right, Tim is talking to everyone, his old Goldman mates, his first school teacher and is getting the detail and the balance right for his next speech on the banks and that scares me as a short, the boy is THINKING and that scares me. Paulson didn't think nor did Bush they reacted over weekends with 1page TARPs to solve a decade issue, I want our leaders to think about 2010 and beyond and write off 2009, the previous cowboys literally acted like they were looking at their stock portfolios and made decisions on that. Lets face it, citi and BOA need to be nationalised, we are going to hit 10pct unemployment in the US so lets face it and look beyond with policy. Lightning has struck, Tim is gonna do a performance better than Angus of ACDC http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wWKqXf2rhE&feature=related), and as I am short I am scared, its the same feeling I get when an English soccer player takes a penalty in an important knock out match and I am not even English. I just feel the tension in the bars when watching an England game and it transcends through your body, every time I see Beckham on TV I think of that kick he missed against Portugal and what about John Terry for Chelsea in the champions league final last year the poor kid puts 4 lumps of sugar in his coffee now, he is still that bitter and just cant get the sour taste out of his mouth. Well thats how I feel about being short now and if I feel that so do other shorts and they will cover for now. Psychology says cover shorts, fundamentally I know we go lower. So emotion being short term usually rules so I close today.
This does not change the general thesis of, banks to roll over, eastern europe to sink, china to jail protesters and so on, this is just a lightning bolt that says I take the shorts off, bank our near 60pct profit in a month and reload the gun for a later day. If you dont eat it or shot it or even better both, you just cant go long it right now.
If your a junkie that needs real action then get yourself some triple longs BGU trading at 15 and change but with a tight stop. Personally not for me I rather bank the 60pct and wait and see if I can short again at a better entry. I cant personally go long with so much to still unravel. Look at the poor Sri Lankan cricket team today being shot at and wounded, if you ever need a reminder of the times and unrest there it is. And trust me this kind of action has a much bigger agenda they are trying to trigger off, maybe to get some neighbouring countries to start yelling at each other then eventually start something big, can you imagine if India didn't call off that tour, thats why Sri Lanka went, because India cancelled, I dont like that, seems like plan A didnt get cancelled, maybe Gold has a shine on it again?
Giddy Up
Monday, March 2, 2009
How to test a banker
I went to a great surprise party in Jersey on the weekend, I knew no one there but took the liberty to be the only drunken aussie that did the usual, speak to everyone, dance with everyone, always have a drink in atleast one hand and sing out loud to songs you have no clue of the words to. But although a lot of the night was a bit of a blur I do recall one conversation with a well known banker on, Nationalisation.
I mentioned how citi was nationalised and he said, no american bank will get nationalised, yes I coughed in reply and like a cat stalking a lame injured bird or even better like that guy in the corner of a bar that sees a girl stumble out of the bathroom, I pounced. Nationalisation is a topic no one seems to understand, a bit like how in 2008 everyone was saying the data does not suggest we are in a recession then in December of 08 they finally say we have been in a recession for a full year, mmmm these guys are advising you on how to invest?
Well I said to the well dressed banker if your stock price goes from 50 and trickles down to 5 then the govt takes a 40pct stake in you and the stock then goes down to 1.50 I think every shareholder that owns citi would say to you if this isnt nationalisation it sure as hell feels like it, smells like it and if I could touch it.........
Just like the recession last year it felt like one but no one agreed we were in it. Same as nationalisation. You only need 25pct to have real power on a board and 40pct even more so.
So as I could tell I had somehow offended him I continued to do so as no point burning the house you may as well torch the barn too. So I asked him if a magician has 52 cards in a deck, shuffles them and the magician gets his assistant to choose one card, she remembers it and puts it back in to the deck of cards and the magician shuffles the cards again, what probability does he have off choosing the same card she did. Well the banker said 1 in 52 as he sipped his cognac and slapped his wife on the back. NO I said, he has a 100pct chance, you forgot he is a MAGICIAN.
That is why quants, PhDs, majority of hedge funds and research teams missed the housing crisis, credit crisis, commodity bubble, they fail to see whats around the numbers.
Stay short no reason yet to go long, I am always looking for a reason just cant find one yet.
GIDDY UP
I mentioned how citi was nationalised and he said, no american bank will get nationalised, yes I coughed in reply and like a cat stalking a lame injured bird or even better like that guy in the corner of a bar that sees a girl stumble out of the bathroom, I pounced. Nationalisation is a topic no one seems to understand, a bit like how in 2008 everyone was saying the data does not suggest we are in a recession then in December of 08 they finally say we have been in a recession for a full year, mmmm these guys are advising you on how to invest?
Well I said to the well dressed banker if your stock price goes from 50 and trickles down to 5 then the govt takes a 40pct stake in you and the stock then goes down to 1.50 I think every shareholder that owns citi would say to you if this isnt nationalisation it sure as hell feels like it, smells like it and if I could touch it.........
Just like the recession last year it felt like one but no one agreed we were in it. Same as nationalisation. You only need 25pct to have real power on a board and 40pct even more so.
So as I could tell I had somehow offended him I continued to do so as no point burning the house you may as well torch the barn too. So I asked him if a magician has 52 cards in a deck, shuffles them and the magician gets his assistant to choose one card, she remembers it and puts it back in to the deck of cards and the magician shuffles the cards again, what probability does he have off choosing the same card she did. Well the banker said 1 in 52 as he sipped his cognac and slapped his wife on the back. NO I said, he has a 100pct chance, you forgot he is a MAGICIAN.
That is why quants, PhDs, majority of hedge funds and research teams missed the housing crisis, credit crisis, commodity bubble, they fail to see whats around the numbers.
Stay short no reason yet to go long, I am always looking for a reason just cant find one yet.
GIDDY UP
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Sex Bomb
When a dog barks do ya kick it!
You better believe it. The market barked loud yesterday and normally I would just kick it but yesterday when I kicked it the bloody thing bit me. Well we covered half when the DOWn was up 110pts and it finished up 230 so we cant always kick the dog and expect it not to bite back.
The remaining shorts have a 5pct stop on them and if that hits we will have banked 43% profit for the month.
Last night I saw live the last white man to sing and dance as good as the departing of the King of rock, Sir Elvis, yes you guessed it, Tom Jones the sex bomb mover and shaker himself, and for a moment even I nearlly threw my undies at him. My girlfriend didnt throw hers and it created our first argument in over a year of knowing each other, I found it disrespectful at the very least to not throw them at the surviving king of rock. It has still left a sour taste in me and I can feel the tension amongst us, but she made me coffee this morning so I think all is forgotten. And as Tom reminded me of my days in London I went for a curry after the show, human bodies just are not designed to consume to much curry and my Indian friends would testify to that, both of em.
If Tom Jones was in the DOW I wouldn't remain as short as I am now. Still hold BGZ 3x bear and SRS 2x bear to 50pct of original stake and long OMEX the pirate ship.
Hey Manhattan property falling off a cliff right now, this is last property shoe to drop and drop hard its the perfect storm, but more later.
Giddy Up
You better believe it. The market barked loud yesterday and normally I would just kick it but yesterday when I kicked it the bloody thing bit me. Well we covered half when the DOWn was up 110pts and it finished up 230 so we cant always kick the dog and expect it not to bite back.
The remaining shorts have a 5pct stop on them and if that hits we will have banked 43% profit for the month.
Last night I saw live the last white man to sing and dance as good as the departing of the King of rock, Sir Elvis, yes you guessed it, Tom Jones the sex bomb mover and shaker himself, and for a moment even I nearlly threw my undies at him. My girlfriend didnt throw hers and it created our first argument in over a year of knowing each other, I found it disrespectful at the very least to not throw them at the surviving king of rock. It has still left a sour taste in me and I can feel the tension amongst us, but she made me coffee this morning so I think all is forgotten. And as Tom reminded me of my days in London I went for a curry after the show, human bodies just are not designed to consume to much curry and my Indian friends would testify to that, both of em.
If Tom Jones was in the DOW I wouldn't remain as short as I am now. Still hold BGZ 3x bear and SRS 2x bear to 50pct of original stake and long OMEX the pirate ship.
Hey Manhattan property falling off a cliff right now, this is last property shoe to drop and drop hard its the perfect storm, but more later.
Giddy Up
I remember the feeling of losing my first bike
The DOW which I now refer to as the DOWn, its a typo for years that I just discovered, the DOWn is what they refer to on CNBC as the MARKET and it needs to be given some color or colour if your from across the pond.
Just take a panda at some of its constituents, banks of obama both BAC and citibank, GE, General Motors the makers of trucks and tanks, Home Depot, guess what they deal with homes, is up 110pts at the moment, how is that a broad maket index, or is it a true reflection. CNBC pls stop refering to this as the market, it should be the new TARP for holding bad institutions. Mr Markets TARP II, the DOWn.
Well half my positions on BGZ the tripple short on a real market and SRS the double short on real estate have been closed out with good profits of over 50% in a month but I feel like I have lost my first bike. The fact I only hold half my original stake in these shorts reminds me of when my first ever bike which had no breaks on them was stolen and I know who it was. And any young person knows the attachment to their first bike, I cant remember the name of the first women I had intimate relations with, but I remember every single rust stain on that first bike.
Bernakie was awesome on CNBC today if you didnt watch him try and view it, I think he may actually get this issue we are in now and he looked in control and even arrogant as he answered the questions thrown at him, you only look that arrogant when you think you have most of the answers or you don't care, well lets see which one of those two it is.
I am still short but the magnitude is less than it was as I banked half. I feel a major bank is about to become stamped with Obama and as such this little market will run up like a bull out of a gate thinking a piece to the puzzle is solved or at the very least a now known unknown which is probably all these bulls need right now, both of them. Well this might allow me to reload the shorts later on.
Giddy Up
Just take a panda at some of its constituents, banks of obama both BAC and citibank, GE, General Motors the makers of trucks and tanks, Home Depot, guess what they deal with homes, is up 110pts at the moment, how is that a broad maket index, or is it a true reflection. CNBC pls stop refering to this as the market, it should be the new TARP for holding bad institutions. Mr Markets TARP II, the DOWn.
Well half my positions on BGZ the tripple short on a real market and SRS the double short on real estate have been closed out with good profits of over 50% in a month but I feel like I have lost my first bike. The fact I only hold half my original stake in these shorts reminds me of when my first ever bike which had no breaks on them was stolen and I know who it was. And any young person knows the attachment to their first bike, I cant remember the name of the first women I had intimate relations with, but I remember every single rust stain on that first bike.
Bernakie was awesome on CNBC today if you didnt watch him try and view it, I think he may actually get this issue we are in now and he looked in control and even arrogant as he answered the questions thrown at him, you only look that arrogant when you think you have most of the answers or you don't care, well lets see which one of those two it is.
I am still short but the magnitude is less than it was as I banked half. I feel a major bank is about to become stamped with Obama and as such this little market will run up like a bull out of a gate thinking a piece to the puzzle is solved or at the very least a now known unknown which is probably all these bulls need right now, both of them. Well this might allow me to reload the shorts later on.
Giddy Up
Monday, February 23, 2009
On the left their is nothing right...............
JPM cut dividend to practically zero, ABOUT TIME. Investors remember what a dividend is for it basically says we have NO use for this cashflow we see no capex on the horizon we dont see the need to pay down debt so here have a dividend, it is crazy to think companies on the one hand need to raise capital either debt or equity at expensive measures and on the other pay a non cost efficient distribution of hard earned cash. If you need a dividend sell stock each quarter dont buy companies for a dividend. So JPM about time, your now the first bank to go on the LONG list although to go long now is still to early. The other banks still have the same problem, on the left side of the balance sheet they have nothing right and on the right side they have nothing left, well maybe JPM has something so I am watching you but I aint buying you.
Giddy Up
Giddy Up
Rabbit Stew the lost economic indicator
I did my usual research today which is an expresso at Roccos on bleecker in NYC, they use the best beans in town, starbuxs take note and stop burning ya coffee. I then walk around the block until I have an idea. (Most I have ever walked was 4hours and I stopped as a cop car started to follow me you dont mess with american police, if they ask you for the time you GIVE them your watch).
Half way around the block is a school so this is where my daily research started. I asked 5 kids what they were having for lunch and 3 answered sunday roast sandwiches and to my amazement 2 of the 3 were rabbit stew and they were not brothers. Now I dont know any Americans outside of Nevada or Arizona that eats rabbit stew, in NY they use to pat rabbits and sell them in pet shop windows, animals here are more sacred than a cow in the streets of Calcutta. Well things have changed, stews are cheap to make you can use low quality meat boil it for 3hours and it finally becomes chewable. So game is back on the dinner table, in the depression of the 30's gun sales went up and game was back on the menu, last week I reported a stock was up 30pct on a down tape and they sell guns. So my daily walk and talk research has concluded I stay short until the kids start to eat roast beef sandwiches and not cheap game.
The urge to go long for a trade still can not be recommended.
Giddy Up
Half way around the block is a school so this is where my daily research started. I asked 5 kids what they were having for lunch and 3 answered sunday roast sandwiches and to my amazement 2 of the 3 were rabbit stew and they were not brothers. Now I dont know any Americans outside of Nevada or Arizona that eats rabbit stew, in NY they use to pat rabbits and sell them in pet shop windows, animals here are more sacred than a cow in the streets of Calcutta. Well things have changed, stews are cheap to make you can use low quality meat boil it for 3hours and it finally becomes chewable. So game is back on the dinner table, in the depression of the 30's gun sales went up and game was back on the menu, last week I reported a stock was up 30pct on a down tape and they sell guns. So my daily walk and talk research has concluded I stay short until the kids start to eat roast beef sandwiches and not cheap game.
The urge to go long for a trade still can not be recommended.
Giddy Up
Thailand
Best actor Sean Penn we nailed at 3.45 and recommended back on 31st of Jan along with Kate Winslett but her price was only a 40pct return which I guess in these markets isnt too bad either.
Could not believe the grunter pretty much playing himself in the wrestler mickey my best friend is a small dog rouke was 1.50. Penn was as convincing as a transvestite in thailand and if anyone has been to thailand you know what I mean, you litterally have to do the Paul Hogan handshake of the line and tackle before you know what ya got. Anyway enough of the past.
50pct of the shorts have 10pct trailing losses on so may get closed out today, if so keep those bullets in the pocket for later and see how this dead cat bounces.
I see 100,000 people protested about the economy in Dublin and a stock in the USA leaped 30pct on Friday as it beat expectations, guess what they sell, thats right GUNS. Social unrest starting to unravel.
But we keep making cash in this predictable market.
Giddy Up
Could not believe the grunter pretty much playing himself in the wrestler mickey my best friend is a small dog rouke was 1.50. Penn was as convincing as a transvestite in thailand and if anyone has been to thailand you know what I mean, you litterally have to do the Paul Hogan handshake of the line and tackle before you know what ya got. Anyway enough of the past.
50pct of the shorts have 10pct trailing losses on so may get closed out today, if so keep those bullets in the pocket for later and see how this dead cat bounces.
I see 100,000 people protested about the economy in Dublin and a stock in the USA leaped 30pct on Friday as it beat expectations, guess what they sell, thats right GUNS. Social unrest starting to unravel.
But we keep making cash in this predictable market.
Giddy Up
Friday, February 20, 2009
anchovie pizza
A very highly regarded UBS banker has sent through an article stating Citi and BOA to not see the end of MAY. This author must have read our blog weeks ago. Hell I dont mind plagorism how do you think I got an A in quantitative studies at Economics. My friend actually did cheat but the fool cheated from someone dumber than him, well I thought he was dumber, and he as such failed and had the nerve to beat the kid up, such a tough life is rural Australia.
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/gone-in-60-days-citi-and-bank-of-america-wont-live-to-see-may/
Well I had a little sneaky side bet with roomate recently, RIMM was trading 58 bucks and I said by mid March (1month) it would break thru 40 and on the back of a tight hand shake and a mans nod of the head like you get before the toss of the super bowl final we engaged.
RIMM today broke thru 40 and unsportingly a lot quicker than it should have, but none the less I have won an anchovie pizza from joes, normally at a hedge fund which is a term we use to avoid casino laws I would have gotten a 500K bonus for that call, but if you have ever had a joes anchovie pizza you would not jump to such a conclussion, not many know how to use anchovies in a pizza but this kid gets it right.
Giddy Up
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/gone-in-60-days-citi-and-bank-of-america-wont-live-to-see-may/
Well I had a little sneaky side bet with roomate recently, RIMM was trading 58 bucks and I said by mid March (1month) it would break thru 40 and on the back of a tight hand shake and a mans nod of the head like you get before the toss of the super bowl final we engaged.
RIMM today broke thru 40 and unsportingly a lot quicker than it should have, but none the less I have won an anchovie pizza from joes, normally at a hedge fund which is a term we use to avoid casino laws I would have gotten a 500K bonus for that call, but if you have ever had a joes anchovie pizza you would not jump to such a conclussion, not many know how to use anchovies in a pizza but this kid gets it right.
Giddy Up
BAC IIII
Can ya believe BAC actually was up for the day at one stage, we are up over 30pct though since the 2.90 bid.
I have run like a cat on a hot tin roof from this, forget stops, I am all out at 3.90 and if it runs up to 5 good luck to them they deserver the rest of this. Dont get emotional its not our girlfriend we are trading if it keeps running.
Thanks BAC but your still dead.
Giddy Up
I have run like a cat on a hot tin roof from this, forget stops, I am all out at 3.90 and if it runs up to 5 good luck to them they deserver the rest of this. Dont get emotional its not our girlfriend we are trading if it keeps running.
Thanks BAC but your still dead.
Giddy Up
BAC III
BAC now 3.50, I cant believe we are making money on this lemon.
Keep moving the stop up, and if you hold this sucker at the close your as greedy as oliver the twist, ya just cant have more.
Stop at 3.30 prey it hits.
Keep moving the stop up, and if you hold this sucker at the close your as greedy as oliver the twist, ya just cant have more.
Stop at 3.30 prey it hits.
BAC II
Stock up 10pct since the trade, stop loss moved up to 3.20 above entry by 10pct. About to close out and run away from this dog with fleas.
BAC
I have made it very clear that Bank Of America is to be the first nationalized bank just pipping Citi, but that doesnt mean I am attached to it like my first bike.
I just bought BAC at 2.94 with a 2.8 stop as the CEO said he sees no reason why bank will be nationalized, now this is total crap and he knows it, its why he blinks like a call girl on the corner of houston and thomson in nyc but I bought them because he cant say that quote and at the same time know he is talking to the govt about the very subject. So its a trade to be CLOSED out at the end of today regardless.
Giddy Up
I just bought BAC at 2.94 with a 2.8 stop as the CEO said he sees no reason why bank will be nationalized, now this is total crap and he knows it, its why he blinks like a call girl on the corner of houston and thomson in nyc but I bought them because he cant say that quote and at the same time know he is talking to the govt about the very subject. So its a trade to be CLOSED out at the end of today regardless.
Giddy Up
trade update
BGZ and SRS now up 30-50% respectively since we started writing this, both up 5%+ today, put in a 10% trailing stop from todays levels for half our stake (79-80 price), just incase a dog comes back and takes a bit of the bone, but I think our stop would be safer than the Pope in his little glass car right now.
This is not a change in direction though, still see market a lot lower from todays levels, DOW with a 6 handle on it makes sense, I still cant believe they talk about this index though as it represents nothing about the economy, is weighted by price only, has 30 stocks in it, half of which dont exist and are ghosts like citi. But on TV here they still say the market and DOW as exchangeable words so who am I to buck the trend. DOW 6 handle.
Giddy Up
This is not a change in direction though, still see market a lot lower from todays levels, DOW with a 6 handle on it makes sense, I still cant believe they talk about this index though as it represents nothing about the economy, is weighted by price only, has 30 stocks in it, half of which dont exist and are ghosts like citi. But on TV here they still say the market and DOW as exchangeable words so who am I to buck the trend. DOW 6 handle.
Giddy Up
Thursday, February 19, 2009
where are the buyers Del Boy........
The market is just like Del Boy of only fools and horses in the depths of East london trying to graft a sale of a used russian video recorder that recently fell off a Bulgarian truck bound for Sussex and driven by Jamaicans ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L4qrRkmxZg ). NO buyers no bids. Thats the catalyst of where we are at right now, no reason to buy a stock, those that have called the bottom for the last 6months have no cash now to continue buying, what ever cash that is on the sidelines is waiting for a major down move from here or a systematic shock before adding capital. Hell if your 40% down you dont want to jump in now and be another 20% down from here right?
So where are all the buyers. Like a good grandmother you wont see them for awhile normally only around xmas time, they dont need an IPOD, they dont need new clothes, the same ones have fit for 50years, they can also sew and they dont walk enough to by new reboks. So the consumer is still gone and so are the buyers of equities.
Us shorts have one major fear ahead that I can see, and that is how does this market react to citi and say BAC being nationalised. Does it drive banks down only for the market to then jump up dramatically in a rush as shorts cover and the market feels an unknown is now known. I am still pondering this thought for the moment like Ben Adams did just before he patted that great bear on those frosty mountains.
Stay short, keep SRS and BGZ dont cover anything yet and dont take profits yet either we are not in this to make a few dollars we are in this to make enough cash so we can pay cash for those cheap houses we are about to get.
I saw OIL rebound a bit today lets keep an eye on that for a short if it runs up hard. Goldman Slachs still on the short list although I am not short yet it didn't break the 100 mark I am waiting for and has now rushed down. We can be patient on this one.
OMEX is still my only long position, still believe in the pirates for now.
Giddy Up
So where are all the buyers. Like a good grandmother you wont see them for awhile normally only around xmas time, they dont need an IPOD, they dont need new clothes, the same ones have fit for 50years, they can also sew and they dont walk enough to by new reboks. So the consumer is still gone and so are the buyers of equities.
Us shorts have one major fear ahead that I can see, and that is how does this market react to citi and say BAC being nationalised. Does it drive banks down only for the market to then jump up dramatically in a rush as shorts cover and the market feels an unknown is now known. I am still pondering this thought for the moment like Ben Adams did just before he patted that great bear on those frosty mountains.
Stay short, keep SRS and BGZ dont cover anything yet and dont take profits yet either we are not in this to make a few dollars we are in this to make enough cash so we can pay cash for those cheap houses we are about to get.
I saw OIL rebound a bit today lets keep an eye on that for a short if it runs up hard. Goldman Slachs still on the short list although I am not short yet it didn't break the 100 mark I am waiting for and has now rushed down. We can be patient on this one.
OMEX is still my only long position, still believe in the pirates for now.
Giddy Up
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Giddy Up
A good start to the week as markets starting to collapse and finally discounting the stimulus package for what it is, niente. Keep the shorts on SRS BGZ unfortunately I took half off last week as I thought the dogs might chew on the bone for awhile and buy on the bank bailout but as soon as that fell apart the shorts came rushing back in like an 18yo at his first ever lap dance.
This could be it cowboys and cowgirls, not a lot of reasons to be long now, macro view will worsen and company reports will miss more than they hit so the news flow has to continue to put downward pressure on this market. Remember keep it simple keep your ideas simple and be ready to move with the market. Forget companies surviving the issue is countries, how can emerging markets and better still Eastern European countries full of debt with no real means to raise capital other than via a defunct IMF survive this crisis. This is still to be factored in, USA is very lucky to be able to raise cash with a strong currency (it better hold for their sake and the ROW) but a lot of other countries will have massive davaluation of currencies a run on their financial system to gain even more momentum, possible war but definately riots, crime and general civil unrest. This is how humans respond in these situations. Obviously I HOPE this does not occur but I have never made money on HOPE only facts and simple ideas.
Pick4 system worked a treat on the weekend netting over 7,000 for under a 120 and 70 dollar investment, but it still needs tweaking before running on ALL american tracks, I will write a book on this model.
Giddy Up
This could be it cowboys and cowgirls, not a lot of reasons to be long now, macro view will worsen and company reports will miss more than they hit so the news flow has to continue to put downward pressure on this market. Remember keep it simple keep your ideas simple and be ready to move with the market. Forget companies surviving the issue is countries, how can emerging markets and better still Eastern European countries full of debt with no real means to raise capital other than via a defunct IMF survive this crisis. This is still to be factored in, USA is very lucky to be able to raise cash with a strong currency (it better hold for their sake and the ROW) but a lot of other countries will have massive davaluation of currencies a run on their financial system to gain even more momentum, possible war but definately riots, crime and general civil unrest. This is how humans respond in these situations. Obviously I HOPE this does not occur but I have never made money on HOPE only facts and simple ideas.
Pick4 system worked a treat on the weekend netting over 7,000 for under a 120 and 70 dollar investment, but it still needs tweaking before running on ALL american tracks, I will write a book on this model.
Giddy Up
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Ned Kelly
.........he was Australias version of Robbin Hood only he killed many people and we hung him in the end, but thats what the banks are right now.
Buy FAS tripple long banks, it is trading under 7.60 down 14% so far today over the next couple days I expect noise to come out of the government about housing. Remember Obama is about the people and not wall street which lets face it its just a side show, Obama will focus on the people on main street and banks will get a bounce from this but remember the thesis hold, most banks will HANG in the end. So its a trade not a hold. Stop loss should be 5% from entry point as its down nearlly 15% so far today so that gives us a good cushion to an already belted index ETF.
OMEX is again on discovery channel tonight, our friendly ship wrecked pirates.
250K guarantee pick4 at ghetto land aqueduct on monday so stay focussed on that. These are our major swings of the bat for the remainder of this week.
Giddy Up
Buy FAS tripple long banks, it is trading under 7.60 down 14% so far today over the next couple days I expect noise to come out of the government about housing. Remember Obama is about the people and not wall street which lets face it its just a side show, Obama will focus on the people on main street and banks will get a bounce from this but remember the thesis hold, most banks will HANG in the end. So its a trade not a hold. Stop loss should be 5% from entry point as its down nearlly 15% so far today so that gives us a good cushion to an already belted index ETF.
OMEX is again on discovery channel tonight, our friendly ship wrecked pirates.
250K guarantee pick4 at ghetto land aqueduct on monday so stay focussed on that. These are our major swings of the bat for the remainder of this week.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
I feel like a JETS fan..........
Thats right, full of hope and optimism only to fall flat on my face half way thru the season. To be such a Grizzly Adams Bear and miss yesterdays price move down of 360pts just made me feel like Brett Favre by round 3 when he took off his socks at the end of the Pats game and said to himself, "what have I done, not even my wife will respect me now".
I have dusted off the cobwebs and due to the physcological impact of the move yesterday I have put myself on a 48hr trading ban to calm the impulse decision making that we mere mortals are capable of. I felt like I was caught walking out of my girlfriends sisters room yesterday, but allas I am clearer now.
BAC, Citi, GS GONE, cant survive and will not survive, UBS hanging on by a thread. Its very obvious now that these names suggested will be merged or die by the time the we put on our first round of sun block in the hamptons. Timmy the tax dodger just couldnt think of a real plan yesterday and that is because every instinct and fact he has accumulated since the democrats took power and started looking at the books, tells him and his team, this is HUGE. And MS how come they all of a sudden became the elite like JPM, they have a premium getting built into stock price and its starting to stick out like honeymooners ...... elbow. So we may have to add this to the short list very soon also.
Trades, still buy 3mth puts on GS when they break thru 100 bucks, buy $7 puts in UBS by months end, BAC just watch it jirate like a 16yo belly dancer.
Did you see Chinas export numbers today, mmmm, cant believe people still think they are going to grow at 7%, exorts Y/Y only down a moderate 17% and lets face it thats probably a dodgy number its more like 30%, guess who they export to, USA, so are our Yankie friends going to start buy again soon, not this year, so once again China will continue to subside to below 3% growth and bring down the Asia Pac with it.
Dont forget Sean Penn best actor, Mikey Rouke are you kidding you cant grunt for 90minutes and get an Oscar.
Jet Setting today at Aqueduct stand it out in a P4.
Giddy Up
I have dusted off the cobwebs and due to the physcological impact of the move yesterday I have put myself on a 48hr trading ban to calm the impulse decision making that we mere mortals are capable of. I felt like I was caught walking out of my girlfriends sisters room yesterday, but allas I am clearer now.
BAC, Citi, GS GONE, cant survive and will not survive, UBS hanging on by a thread. Its very obvious now that these names suggested will be merged or die by the time the we put on our first round of sun block in the hamptons. Timmy the tax dodger just couldnt think of a real plan yesterday and that is because every instinct and fact he has accumulated since the democrats took power and started looking at the books, tells him and his team, this is HUGE. And MS how come they all of a sudden became the elite like JPM, they have a premium getting built into stock price and its starting to stick out like honeymooners ...... elbow. So we may have to add this to the short list very soon also.
Trades, still buy 3mth puts on GS when they break thru 100 bucks, buy $7 puts in UBS by months end, BAC just watch it jirate like a 16yo belly dancer.
Did you see Chinas export numbers today, mmmm, cant believe people still think they are going to grow at 7%, exorts Y/Y only down a moderate 17% and lets face it thats probably a dodgy number its more like 30%, guess who they export to, USA, so are our Yankie friends going to start buy again soon, not this year, so once again China will continue to subside to below 3% growth and bring down the Asia Pac with it.
Dont forget Sean Penn best actor, Mikey Rouke are you kidding you cant grunt for 90minutes and get an Oscar.
Jet Setting today at Aqueduct stand it out in a P4.
Giddy Up
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Timmy the tax dodger
Hey taxman Tim let me give you a tip, under promise and over deliver to a market too scared to even buy a new coffee machine with out 5 signitures signing it off and the CFO writing the check.
Well well well, 3 holes in the ground. What was that Timmy, making the market wait a few weeks for a bank plan that went like this, we have a plan, kinda, sorta well maybe, and its kinda gonna be like this but dont be surprised if it dont work as its a big problem, and stay tuned with more details to come, not sure when but soon and it will be big but might not work. Don't worry Tim I am not against you, I am with you, any guy that can head the IRS and not pay taxes then get the job you have gotten clearly has some mustard.
Keep our eyes on Goldman Slachs we short them soon. They will not want a bar of this DISCLOSURE stuff Timmy the tool man came out with today, they dont want to disclose we paid 2mill bonus to a guy that lost us cash in 2008 because Goldman dont want to loose him.
Giddy UP
Well well well, 3 holes in the ground. What was that Timmy, making the market wait a few weeks for a bank plan that went like this, we have a plan, kinda, sorta well maybe, and its kinda gonna be like this but dont be surprised if it dont work as its a big problem, and stay tuned with more details to come, not sure when but soon and it will be big but might not work. Don't worry Tim I am not against you, I am with you, any guy that can head the IRS and not pay taxes then get the job you have gotten clearly has some mustard.
Keep our eyes on Goldman Slachs we short them soon. They will not want a bar of this DISCLOSURE stuff Timmy the tool man came out with today, they dont want to disclose we paid 2mill bonus to a guy that lost us cash in 2008 because Goldman dont want to loose him.
Giddy UP
Monday, February 9, 2009
Don't chase a whore after she clocked off
Well things are panning out as discussed last week when closing out our shorts for a little while, market has rallied, this is gettting to be as predictable as a school girls prom night.
I am embaressed to admit I even bought shares in BAC on Wednesday at 3.95 with a stop loss tighter than Ben Hurs undies, as it appeared to be the biggest beta stock going into this short little rally but I couldn't sleep that night as I am certain this institution is the first bank to be nationalized, pipping Citi at the post by a short head. Deleveraging has only been going on for 6months and we were ramping it up for 10years. And don't go chasing BAC up at this point as it will be like chasing a prostitute after she just finished an 8hour shift, poor timing.
Don't put the shorts back on yet, lets wait a couple more days then reasses. But the thesis still holds, we are going a long way down from here before we go along way up.
OMEX is going flat after its bounce we got. I am holding for a little longer.
Giddy Up
ps
jet setting wins at aqueduct on wednesday play it in a pick4, do 2 ALL legs and try and pick a winner in the other leg but pin jet setting.
I am embaressed to admit I even bought shares in BAC on Wednesday at 3.95 with a stop loss tighter than Ben Hurs undies, as it appeared to be the biggest beta stock going into this short little rally but I couldn't sleep that night as I am certain this institution is the first bank to be nationalized, pipping Citi at the post by a short head. Deleveraging has only been going on for 6months and we were ramping it up for 10years. And don't go chasing BAC up at this point as it will be like chasing a prostitute after she just finished an 8hour shift, poor timing.
Don't put the shorts back on yet, lets wait a couple more days then reasses. But the thesis still holds, we are going a long way down from here before we go along way up.
OMEX is going flat after its bounce we got. I am holding for a little longer.
Giddy Up
ps
jet setting wins at aqueduct on wednesday play it in a pick4, do 2 ALL legs and try and pick a winner in the other leg but pin jet setting.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Even A Dog Has To Eat
Hope you followed the advise yesterday and closed out those shorts when the market was actually down but ended up. Give the dogs a bone for a few days, let the wizard Obama wave his magic, let Timmy the I dont pay tax Geither have his moment on Monday. The shorts will run for the hills today covering up which will help artificially run the market up a bit more. So there will be fat on the bone again next week when we load up and short again. And dont worry all our mates out their the other short sellers will reload the gun mid next week. So as ACDC once said, lets give the dog a bone, give the dog a bone.
PS
lets prey Goldman hits a 100 bucks as we can then short that sucker too. Market thinks its good they want to pay back the TARP, its a sign of strength. Well Goldman knows if they pay 500K bonuses to their top guys their business model, what ever it is, has finished. As discussed in a previous blog the talent will not walk away from Goldman they will run for the door with the goldfish like Tom Cruise did in Jerry McGuire asking. WHO IS COMING WITH ME.
Giddy Up
PS
lets prey Goldman hits a 100 bucks as we can then short that sucker too. Market thinks its good they want to pay back the TARP, its a sign of strength. Well Goldman knows if they pay 500K bonuses to their top guys their business model, what ever it is, has finished. As discussed in a previous blog the talent will not walk away from Goldman they will run for the door with the goldfish like Tom Cruise did in Jerry McGuire asking. WHO IS COMING WITH ME.
Giddy Up
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Bank Of Obama
Well Federer let us down, if nadal goes to a 5 setter he wins. Serena did us well and at a good price, Arizona did us well with the +7. OMEX is working for us and has gone up over 20% while the market has fallen. (Watch tonights show on discovery channel)
Our shorts SRS and BGZ are finally starting to rip. We may have a tough part to next week as OBAMA comes out blazing with his final throw of the dice so close out for a few days. Then reload the shorts on Wednesday next week and ride this down. The next major leg in the global markets is down as economic news is more bearish and Unemployment heads to 10pct and China continues to roll over and OIL collapses further below 25USD. Oh and dont get me started on eastern europe, they need SO MUCH foreign investment of which no one has, they do not have the benefit of a strong currency like the very lucky USA does (hope it holds for them) and the eastern european govts do not have the cash reserves or the means to get them like some other countries and for this reason there will be riots and protectionism like we have never seen in recent history.
The downleg is apon us.
Giddy Up
PS
BAC and Citi will be BANK OF OBAMA before May 31st 2009 and UBS is heading to 5USD a share.
Our shorts SRS and BGZ are finally starting to rip. We may have a tough part to next week as OBAMA comes out blazing with his final throw of the dice so close out for a few days. Then reload the shorts on Wednesday next week and ride this down. The next major leg in the global markets is down as economic news is more bearish and Unemployment heads to 10pct and China continues to roll over and OIL collapses further below 25USD. Oh and dont get me started on eastern europe, they need SO MUCH foreign investment of which no one has, they do not have the benefit of a strong currency like the very lucky USA does (hope it holds for them) and the eastern european govts do not have the cash reserves or the means to get them like some other countries and for this reason there will be riots and protectionism like we have never seen in recent history.
The downleg is apon us.
Giddy Up
PS
BAC and Citi will be BANK OF OBAMA before May 31st 2009 and UBS is heading to 5USD a share.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Quick Trade
Roger Federer is 1.65 to win aussie open tonight which you just have to take with Nadal playing a 5hour match and the hard court record, 1.65 will turn out to be easier than taking candy from a small fat boy.
Take this profit when it occurs and get on Sean Penn for best actor and Kate Winslet best actress.
Hope you got some OMEX stock roared up over 20pct last week when market was down a couple %, I am still in the stock, I have a short term target of 9bucks on it
Giddy Up
Take this profit when it occurs and get on Sean Penn for best actor and Kate Winslet best actress.
Hope you got some OMEX stock roared up over 20pct last week when market was down a couple %, I am still in the stock, I have a short term target of 9bucks on it
Giddy Up
serena
I woke up this morning shivering on the couch, in my daze i realise the TV is playing a replay of womens tennis final. I think for a second and this over whelming feeling i had a bet comes over me, i talk to angel my girl and ask, did i bet last night? She replies, "you put 1200 pounds on serena at 1.40 you told me to give you 500 bucks and you bet for me", i ring betfair and the account is full of cash. I check text messages and i see i fired a shots out to my friends, both of them, to get on and load up. I think clearer and act decisively when drunk. 40% return was unbelieveable for that girl.
Now we have made cash from our shorts, keep them on the big down leg is starting, I like Obama but the poor guy is now finished, he is like a school teacher talking the the kids at assembly on the final day before summer break and the bell has rung, thats right no one is listening anymore. Stimulus is stated and over now, Bernakie has also fired his last shot so now the only thing that will MOVE this market is earnings, well kids we all know that aint gonna be good. Keep the shorts on. Oh I hope ya got some OMEX that better be the only stock you are long.
On a side note, take arizona plus 7 and do a pick four at gulfstream single out, just a coincedence in race 3 with garcia and verlazquez in the turf race, take all and all in the other 2 races, it will cost you 120 bucks but you may win a small fortune.
Giddy Up
Now we have made cash from our shorts, keep them on the big down leg is starting, I like Obama but the poor guy is now finished, he is like a school teacher talking the the kids at assembly on the final day before summer break and the bell has rung, thats right no one is listening anymore. Stimulus is stated and over now, Bernakie has also fired his last shot so now the only thing that will MOVE this market is earnings, well kids we all know that aint gonna be good. Keep the shorts on. Oh I hope ya got some OMEX that better be the only stock you are long.
On a side note, take arizona plus 7 and do a pick four at gulfstream single out, just a coincedence in race 3 with garcia and verlazquez in the turf race, take all and all in the other 2 races, it will cost you 120 bucks but you may win a small fortune.
Giddy Up
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Giddy up for Week 2
Keep the short position on, govt now out of breath, fed no more arrows so we are FINALLY in the land of earnings & fundamentals driving the market and that can only be down. OIL still has a way to go down it will break 22USD at some stage this year.
The glory trade is buying put options in Goldman slacks, the thesis of, "they have the smartest talent in the game" just isnt enough for me as the smart employees will move away as they can not earn the dollars working for a company that has ZERO earnings potential in this environment for some time (2yrs+) and all they will do is burn up cash. So the SMART guys will be smart enough to walk away, leaving the broken bank model to arrogantly collapse. Buy 50 puts with 3mths to expiry and you will get paid, if you hit a double, take original position off and let the rest run its course. UBS gave us a heads up today announcing no bonuses at the investment bank maybe for some years. Another factor that proves GS has nowhere to hide. UBS share holders should also have a direct correlation with John Bon Jovi, "Oh Oh, Living On A Preyer". Stock will trade below $5 within next 3mths.
Finally we have a free day for shorting tomorrow, GDP comes in at 3.5% contraction better then expected NO ONE will believe it and expect it to be revised down like ALL bad numbers lately getting revised down later on, mmmm. If it hits 5% contraction as expected it is discounted and if its more the market falls. So we have a FREE day to short going into tomorrow.
Giddy up, lets make some cash as in 6mths time we will have property to buy in manhattan that will be 50% cheaper from their highs, OH yeah this market has NOT mark to market properly.
The glory trade is buying put options in Goldman slacks, the thesis of, "they have the smartest talent in the game" just isnt enough for me as the smart employees will move away as they can not earn the dollars working for a company that has ZERO earnings potential in this environment for some time (2yrs+) and all they will do is burn up cash. So the SMART guys will be smart enough to walk away, leaving the broken bank model to arrogantly collapse. Buy 50 puts with 3mths to expiry and you will get paid, if you hit a double, take original position off and let the rest run its course. UBS gave us a heads up today announcing no bonuses at the investment bank maybe for some years. Another factor that proves GS has nowhere to hide. UBS share holders should also have a direct correlation with John Bon Jovi, "Oh Oh, Living On A Preyer". Stock will trade below $5 within next 3mths.
Finally we have a free day for shorting tomorrow, GDP comes in at 3.5% contraction better then expected NO ONE will believe it and expect it to be revised down like ALL bad numbers lately getting revised down later on, mmmm. If it hits 5% contraction as expected it is discounted and if its more the market falls. So we have a FREE day to short going into tomorrow.
Giddy up, lets make some cash as in 6mths time we will have property to buy in manhattan that will be 50% cheaper from their highs, OH yeah this market has NOT mark to market properly.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Stock market tip
OK today it is not a pick 4 at aqueduct or Arizona over the Phillies, this week we make money by STAYING short, buy BGZ and SRS, hold until further notice, hold NO stocks with a long direction.
Last Friday I went to Madison sq garden with the biggest radio star in NYC to watch what i thought would be the only bull i saw in 2009, the bull riders, I was wrong. We still have plenty of bulls out there. Yesterdays crawl back (Friday) from the dead and today's 60pt gain is a great selling opportunity for anyone who owns stocks. The phrase "stimulus package" has rallied the market 17 times in the last 30 days so its been discounted into the market more times than an eastern European 16yo escort. If I was a CEO forget earnings forget visibility just mention the words, "stimulus" and "package" in a sentence and you will get some bids for ya equity. The average analyst is 28yo and during the last recession they were putting on their first ever condom. Now they forecast Citi for its worst earnings loss on record, well they were wrong it was much much worse, stock rallied, ah, yep rallied. So my recent quote of 95% of equity analyst are in the wrong job is too optimistic but thank god they are not doctors or better still pilots for US Airways cause if they were the black box would record, "give it more power captain we can still make it up, its just a couple birds", this is my only saviour that they are at least not hurting me by being analysts they just help create others to take the other side of my trade. (Have you seen their 2010 numbers) So to end this note, after the great speaker Obama does his magic on Tuesday and sells the stimulus package for the 18th time, sell again, short everything and make money. Oh and this money on the side everyone talks about, has anyone actually SEEN it or saw it documented. I cant for the life of me understand how it can exist.
Oh and one last point, don't shut anyone off if they mention the word depression there is no reason why this couldn't be one, we don't know if govt intervention on a mass global scale is good as its never been done before. Some say Japan govt in the 90's didn't act hence stock market there has been flat for 15yrs, well I saw people got burnt and decided to never invest in stocks again, this is why so many Japanese travel and so many buy new gadgets, have you been to japan, they all smile they are happy people because they thought of better things to do with their money then put it in stocks with dodgy ceo's. So japan not in a long recession just the stock market their. In America everyone owns stocks so we spend 11mths of the year trying to prop it up. Get a passport and travel to Spain I say, live it up that's why you work
PS Stimulus package is only 18 Bernie Madoffs, put it into perspective Mr Market.
Last Friday I went to Madison sq garden with the biggest radio star in NYC to watch what i thought would be the only bull i saw in 2009, the bull riders, I was wrong. We still have plenty of bulls out there. Yesterdays crawl back (Friday) from the dead and today's 60pt gain is a great selling opportunity for anyone who owns stocks. The phrase "stimulus package" has rallied the market 17 times in the last 30 days so its been discounted into the market more times than an eastern European 16yo escort. If I was a CEO forget earnings forget visibility just mention the words, "stimulus" and "package" in a sentence and you will get some bids for ya equity. The average analyst is 28yo and during the last recession they were putting on their first ever condom. Now they forecast Citi for its worst earnings loss on record, well they were wrong it was much much worse, stock rallied, ah, yep rallied. So my recent quote of 95% of equity analyst are in the wrong job is too optimistic but thank god they are not doctors or better still pilots for US Airways cause if they were the black box would record, "give it more power captain we can still make it up, its just a couple birds", this is my only saviour that they are at least not hurting me by being analysts they just help create others to take the other side of my trade. (Have you seen their 2010 numbers) So to end this note, after the great speaker Obama does his magic on Tuesday and sells the stimulus package for the 18th time, sell again, short everything and make money. Oh and this money on the side everyone talks about, has anyone actually SEEN it or saw it documented. I cant for the life of me understand how it can exist.
Oh and one last point, don't shut anyone off if they mention the word depression there is no reason why this couldn't be one, we don't know if govt intervention on a mass global scale is good as its never been done before. Some say Japan govt in the 90's didn't act hence stock market there has been flat for 15yrs, well I saw people got burnt and decided to never invest in stocks again, this is why so many Japanese travel and so many buy new gadgets, have you been to japan, they all smile they are happy people because they thought of better things to do with their money then put it in stocks with dodgy ceo's. So japan not in a long recession just the stock market their. In America everyone owns stocks so we spend 11mths of the year trying to prop it up. Get a passport and travel to Spain I say, live it up that's why you work
PS Stimulus package is only 18 Bernie Madoffs, put it into perspective Mr Market.
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