Monday, March 16, 2009

The good, the bad and the.........

What an amazing performance by the banks last week, yeah we cashed a lazy 30pct profit and left the crumbs for the others but WOW. And I am not referring to the price movement of FAS the triple long financials we spoke about last week, to get on that wave and ride it home but WOW about the synchronised performance of the banks.

The bad, BAC came out and said we are making profits, than the ugly CITI, came out and said, can you believe it we too are making profits and even the good JPM joined in this magnificent synchronised performance.

Better organised than the vocals of the Brooklyn under 16 Christmas pageant of 2008.

The Canadian synchronised gold medal swimmers of 1988 would have even clapped at this effort by the banks. The fact that I can remember this gold medal not even I can explain but 88 was a big year for me as Australia celebrated 200 years of existence since our first convicts landed, so I remember a lot in that year, my mind was a sponge. And Bernanke on 60minutes last night giving us a forecast that we could be out of recession by the end of the year. That's a big call Mr Bernanke I mean that would in effect be the largest recession since the post war era so your not really sticking your neck out there and I do remember you said in 2007 that housing was not a bubble and the effects are contained, but alas I still like you, I think you get it now.

But the good, the bad and the ugly all teamed up last week but we all know what happened in the end of that movie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXldafIl5DQ

But this made me think again, something I have not done for a few days, and as the king once sang to us, it brought up this little reminder.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBmAPYkPeYU

Tread carefully if your all of a sudden bullish, don't forget where we are, where we came from and where we are heading. The banking index is down 70pct from its highs at todays level and that includes the recent run. Dont forget the big picture of this economic downturn we are in, Eastern Europe in turmoil, banks to roll over, Ireland in trouble, unemployment to hit 10pct in USA comfortably, commercial property to fall off a cliff, still.

Giddy Up

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