Saturday, January 24, 2009

Giddy up for Week 2

Keep the short position on, govt now out of breath, fed no more arrows so we are FINALLY in the land of earnings & fundamentals driving the market and that can only be down. OIL still has a way to go down it will break 22USD at some stage this year.

The glory trade is buying put options in Goldman slacks, the thesis of, "they have the smartest talent in the game" just isnt enough for me as the smart employees will move away as they can not earn the dollars working for a company that has ZERO earnings potential in this environment for some time (2yrs+) and all they will do is burn up cash. So the SMART guys will be smart enough to walk away, leaving the broken bank model to arrogantly collapse. Buy 50 puts with 3mths to expiry and you will get paid, if you hit a double, take original position off and let the rest run its course. UBS gave us a heads up today announcing no bonuses at the investment bank maybe for some years. Another factor that proves GS has nowhere to hide. UBS share holders should also have a direct correlation with John Bon Jovi, "Oh Oh, Living On A Preyer". Stock will trade below $5 within next 3mths.

Finally we have a free day for shorting tomorrow, GDP comes in at 3.5% contraction better then expected NO ONE will believe it and expect it to be revised down like ALL bad numbers lately getting revised down later on, mmmm. If it hits 5% contraction as expected it is discounted and if its more the market falls. So we have a FREE day to short going into tomorrow.

Giddy up, lets make some cash as in 6mths time we will have property to buy in manhattan that will be 50% cheaper from their highs, OH yeah this market has NOT mark to market properly.

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