OK today it is not a pick 4 at aqueduct or Arizona over the Phillies, this week we make money by STAYING short, buy BGZ and SRS, hold until further notice, hold NO stocks with a long direction.
Last Friday I went to Madison sq garden with the biggest radio star in NYC to watch what i thought would be the only bull i saw in 2009, the bull riders, I was wrong. We still have plenty of bulls out there. Yesterdays crawl back (Friday) from the dead and today's 60pt gain is a great selling opportunity for anyone who owns stocks. The phrase "stimulus package" has rallied the market 17 times in the last 30 days so its been discounted into the market more times than an eastern European 16yo escort. If I was a CEO forget earnings forget visibility just mention the words, "stimulus" and "package" in a sentence and you will get some bids for ya equity. The average analyst is 28yo and during the last recession they were putting on their first ever condom. Now they forecast Citi for its worst earnings loss on record, well they were wrong it was much much worse, stock rallied, ah, yep rallied. So my recent quote of 95% of equity analyst are in the wrong job is too optimistic but thank god they are not doctors or better still pilots for US Airways cause if they were the black box would record, "give it more power captain we can still make it up, its just a couple birds", this is my only saviour that they are at least not hurting me by being analysts they just help create others to take the other side of my trade. (Have you seen their 2010 numbers) So to end this note, after the great speaker Obama does his magic on Tuesday and sells the stimulus package for the 18th time, sell again, short everything and make money. Oh and this money on the side everyone talks about, has anyone actually SEEN it or saw it documented. I cant for the life of me understand how it can exist.
Oh and one last point, don't shut anyone off if they mention the word depression there is no reason why this couldn't be one, we don't know if govt intervention on a mass global scale is good as its never been done before. Some say Japan govt in the 90's didn't act hence stock market there has been flat for 15yrs, well I saw people got burnt and decided to never invest in stocks again, this is why so many Japanese travel and so many buy new gadgets, have you been to japan, they all smile they are happy people because they thought of better things to do with their money then put it in stocks with dodgy ceo's. So japan not in a long recession just the stock market their. In America everyone owns stocks so we spend 11mths of the year trying to prop it up. Get a passport and travel to Spain I say, live it up that's why you work
PS Stimulus package is only 18 Bernie Madoffs, put it into perspective Mr Market.
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