The only time the word hope made sense

Bob Hope, its the only time the word hope could either make you laugh or make you cash. This short clip is over 60yrs old but was before its time, they are either talking about citibank, our current policies, or all of the above.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWpU8sX10_4

I got scared again today and its the 2nd time I have been long this year and the 2nd time I have felt scared. So FAS was closed out today, 20pct upside yesterday and a lazy and unconvincing 8pct today and to you mathematicians out there that's more than 28pct on the original and if your not sure why, than that also explains why banks SHOULD make money on us small folks if they stuck to what they were built for. Plenty of easy money to be made in this world, we just need to keep it simple, like bottled water and hamburgers, keep it simple.

Well in my ground research work today I asked a few cowboys that were bullish their exit strategies, 4 out of the 5 gave answers like, 50pct gain and this kind of pie in the sky stuff. I then asked 8 shorts what their exit strategies were (more shorts as surprisingly there were more of them) 6 gave very good responses, some looking for the day unemployment hits 10pct, a few said when the first bank is fully nationalised another said when more than 30pct of commercial property in Manhattan is vacant or in 3mth arrears, but I cant believe I left him before asking how or what index do you track that on and another said when civil war breaks out in either Eastern Europe, or real unrest in China or even Iran got a mention. Anyway the point is the shorts have a strategy, a purpose, know what they are looking for and as such appears to be the smart money, the longs are just your every day chap that thinks the DOWn is 50pct cheaper than it was 18months ago so it must go up, mmmmm not much conviction or purpose there, more like a gamblers mentality, I bet if I asked him if I had 8blacks in a row on a roulette wheel and you had one bet to make would it be red or black, I am tipping he would have taken red. Another to her credit actually stuck the neck out and called a stock to be long, SBUX. Well I went past one on the way back home and decided to give the coffee burners a shot. I asked for single express (10cents to make, I am talking the beans here), and a small latte which they very well markedly call, tall, I find it insulting actually as I know straight out of the gate I am in a shop that has fully tried to bluff me the moment I ask for a small and they say you mean tall. Anyway a latte would cost about 30cents to make I think, tops. The bill came to 5.65 USD, which is a 30minute massage in Thailand and they don't just rub your back down there, its a totally different meaning to the word, full body down there. I can understand over paying for say a Prada bag as it may give off some kind of image or something I don't know but I get it, but coffee, nah I ain't having that. So SBUX not for me, not going long that. Very easy to dismiss that thesis.

So alas this dead cat bounce which we have made a nice little earner from is one to now stay away from, if it rips another 10pct good on it, we have a better risk premium to short it with. Go long from here if you would bet a red after 9 blacks in a row, otherwise lets smoke a peace pipe on this market for a little while and wait for the paint to dry then it will tell us when to strike. So I am all back in cash again.

Oh I will sleep better tonight knowing I am no longer long.

Giddy Up