Thursday, May 14, 2009

Ford

Could be a small Miami 1 bedroom apartment in it for us but I am starting to warm to this mountain of lead on wheels

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbn9NG1VhPw

FORD


GM gone or going, Chrysler gone or going, Toyota, well it ain't American is it. Obama clearly wants green cars so happy to take over GM and get the team to focus on energy efficient cars at a loss, he has a 10yr plan here, anyway that will mean Ford will be the sole truly independent American car company. They appear the strongest, never asked for money from government, did a recent equity raising. Yes market and consumer broke so no one is buying a car but that's in the price. If we can get Ford back down near $4 (currently $5.25), it could be one of those, put $ into it and never look at it until the Olympics in 2012. Then see if we have $$$$$ worth of Ford shares. Then we buy a $300,000 apartment in Florida with $$$$$$ down. Also Mr Obama will not be able to nationalize all the automakers they will want ONE national symbol of a US car, too much pressure, and trust me 1 in 3 houses in America have an American flag hanging out of the window, so they are very patriotic, not like us Australians that would sell our souls for a hot meat pie and a cold beer. So they will eventually buy America goods again in a patriotic fashion.

Now this goes against everything I believe about consumers not buying anything besides low quality ham and cheese and flour sales going up as they are baking their own bread at home, consumer is on its knees but one day their 10 credit card wallets will open up and Ford could be the, put it in the bottom of your drawer stock that you do not look at until 2012.

Giddy Up

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Jim Morrison

As Jim Morrison said, this could be the end my friend. I see the DOWn hitting 7700 before it's next move up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFK1yKfiGo

Sitting in the bar last night smashing down my usual I got into a discussion that didn't involve Latin women, horse racing or sports gambling so the odds where I was in a discussion way out of my depth.

It's a bull market he said. We have bottomed. You don't want to miss this move. I agreed on a few points, one being that the barmaids blouse had more buttons undone than done, and that a red bra under a white shirt is the only bull sign I can see.

Look every dog has its day and every day has a dog and the last 2 months even I mentioned to not stand in front of this freight train. But now we sell, now we short as this recent run will run out of steam so short it now as we did 2days ago with the triple short banks FAZ.

Foreclosures up 30pct on a year ago. Ah that's bigger then ben hurs undies. The change reaction to that is banks, consumer wealth, confidence will suffer a bit more pain.

Oh and one last point a study in the UK said that 1 in 3 could be effected by the swine flu. Surely that can't be right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyZSckIjp4c

Giddy Up

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Hitman Hatton

After 3 heavy days on the whiskey at the Kentucky Derby and loosing my shirt which thank fully I borrowed from a true friend the day before, I took the bus to downtown Louisville, Kentucky to watch the Hatton fight, and yes you know the rest. Full as a boot on a rainy day I heard a mate call his bookie with the words, give me 2grand on Hatton to win by knockout. I couldn't believe the words that followed from my mouth, can I have 500 of that.

10seconds into round 1 you could hear me yelling out, stop the fight stop the fight someone is going to get killed, yes Ricky the poorly named Hitman Hatton got hit and like GM looked dead.

Leaving the bar I sounded a bit like Pacman in this clip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIl8Q_br8bI&NR=1

Nothing but mumbled words strung together in an audible fashion.

Well the markets are like Hitman right now, having shorted OIL at 50 bucks I am nearly out for the count like Ricky but alas we still have cash in the coffers from our earlier plays and today after some sessions to the gym and a step away from the game I have come back to see some amazing opportunities.

GM executives sold shares today, one sold 100,000 shares to collect just over 100K now that is a sign of the captain of the ship yelling out, every man for himself as the captain grabs the last life jacket and jumps. I see banks raising capital and some say that's a good sign, well its a sign of an industry that wants YOU to prop them up, you only sell for 3 reasons, 1 is you think your price will get lower in the future, the other is you need money to survive and the final one is opportunistic, to raise cash to buy other institutions, which when you think about it means you believe other banks will go lower so you want to raise cash now to pounce later. Either way all 3 say short banks for now.

I loaded up on FAZ last night triple short banks and like Ricky Hatton they wont come back to haunt us for awhile.

Giddy Up