I know what it is like to feel like a Matador or at least one that is hit by a bull.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq6k6rDVl4A
After aggressively loading up on the triple short banks FAZ I got closed out as it went down like a led balloon, then I check at the close and see FAZ actually finished at the high of the day and the market sold off. It truly felt like a bull had run over me.
Don't worry though market still overvalued, banks have run up like the mess is behind us, when we are actually just reaching the eye of the storm. Unemployment rising + foreclosures to rise = banks loose. Keynesian II.
My friend who creates his own clothes with a very unique style which you could travel the world and not find, is closing down next week. His shirts are better than anything you can find in Manhattan but alas they are priced at $250-$350, which is about the same as a GM car in today's market. So he stood no chance, as we smashed down a few bottles of cheap $5.99 wine (yes 5.99 wine exists) and talked about the fact that talent never dies only dreams get faded, he told me that the rent on the commercial building for the business had not been paid for 3months and prior to that they were paying just as much as they could.
So if you thought we had seen the bottom of commercial property, I don't even think we have seen the start of it, we are not even in the eye of the commercial property storm. Good luck if your a bank lending to the owner of a commercial property.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Monday, April 20, 2009
Is it still a point and shoot?
YES
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Thursday, April 16, 2009
If you want cash then read this
April 27th case schiller index on property values ON MANHATTAN property ipo's. UMM and DMM
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Pupets running the mupets
A nice day yesterday with FAZ triple short banks, up 20pct but I will be closing that out some time today. Bought at 9.15 now 11 will move stop up to 5pct from it's open today.
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Where is the percuito?
Had a great Easters lunch on Sunday, nothing better than eating at another persons place, you bring a 30dollar bottle of wine which gives you the right to smash down at least a bottle of vino, eat for 2hours straight and leave a mess for them to clean. I am now starting to understand the benefits of a house party just as long as they don't use your house.
Anyway I got talking to the biggest food retailer in Manhattan. I asked him how the foot traffic was and I learnt something interesting. Our upstairs sales are not doing well (appliances like kettles etc) but our main business which is food has held up well but we have noticed more people are coming in but they are each spending less.
So I draw this conclusion, if the consumer doesn't need it, they are NOT going to buy it, hence the kettle isn't getting sold. The consumer needs to eat so as they are flat broke and still worried about their job they are NOT going to restaurants, hence the increase in foot traffic. They are not buying as much per person as before, so they must be buying the carrots but not the chocolate candy bars. He also mentioned his 9.99 a pound percuito has been replaced by the 5.99 per pound ham.
So until the percuito is back on the shelves instead of the cheap ham I have decided my shorts are going back on for now.
Giddy Up
Anyway I got talking to the biggest food retailer in Manhattan. I asked him how the foot traffic was and I learnt something interesting. Our upstairs sales are not doing well (appliances like kettles etc) but our main business which is food has held up well but we have noticed more people are coming in but they are each spending less.
So I draw this conclusion, if the consumer doesn't need it, they are NOT going to buy it, hence the kettle isn't getting sold. The consumer needs to eat so as they are flat broke and still worried about their job they are NOT going to restaurants, hence the increase in foot traffic. They are not buying as much per person as before, so they must be buying the carrots but not the chocolate candy bars. He also mentioned his 9.99 a pound percuito has been replaced by the 5.99 per pound ham.
So until the percuito is back on the shelves instead of the cheap ham I have decided my shorts are going back on for now.
Giddy Up
Monday, April 13, 2009
Bluestar luvs.......
anacot steel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
That's right my greed has finally returned. Been waiting for the time to strike on the short side again and thus now is the time. With recent surge in the banks largely due to 1 company wells fargo preannouncing (wonder who told them to do that) the market has now been rushing to cover their bank shorts which has pushed a lot of banks up in the last few days.
That means it's time for me to bring back greed, as greed is good greed is crystal clear. FAZ a triple short on banks is at 9.15 and with a stop at 8.15.
I am prepared to give this one a real shake rattle and roll over the next few days, like a an Egyptian belly dancer, lets shake this one until the music stops and then some. We have banked enough earlier in the year to take a good roll at this one. Can't wait to see the provisions on their commercial real estate portfolios and credit cards. Every day I walk around Manhattan I see shops closing down with "to lease" signs on the window. That is not bullish.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7upG01-XWbY
That's right my greed has finally returned. Been waiting for the time to strike on the short side again and thus now is the time. With recent surge in the banks largely due to 1 company wells fargo preannouncing (wonder who told them to do that) the market has now been rushing to cover their bank shorts which has pushed a lot of banks up in the last few days.
That means it's time for me to bring back greed, as greed is good greed is crystal clear. FAZ a triple short on banks is at 9.15 and with a stop at 8.15.
I am prepared to give this one a real shake rattle and roll over the next few days, like a an Egyptian belly dancer, lets shake this one until the music stops and then some. We have banked enough earlier in the year to take a good roll at this one. Can't wait to see the provisions on their commercial real estate portfolios and credit cards. Every day I walk around Manhattan I see shops closing down with "to lease" signs on the window. That is not bullish.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
news flash.......
If your in a house of glass do not throw stones. I received a lot of flak for saying to short muni's in a recent blog then I stumble over this on CNBC........
In the municipal bond market, traders have been watching the continuing saga of Jefferson County, Alabama sewer bonds."We're waiting on what could potentially be the largest bankruptcy in muni history ... They're supposed to have something out tomorrow," said Peter Delahunt, senior vice president and national sales manager at Raymond James. Delahunt said the county has failed to make counter party payments for some time now and it's possible the deadline could again be postponed. "The insurance companies that are on the hook are pushing for foreclosure so they could take over the sewer system and raise rates, and that may not be politically palatable," he said
But forget about this news flash, nothing is better than Lord Flasheart himself, you have to watch all of this when the boss isn't looking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3jEdW1zYDU&feature=related
Still have not reloaded the market shorts but definately starting to shine the revolver.
Giddy Up
In the municipal bond market, traders have been watching the continuing saga of Jefferson County, Alabama sewer bonds."We're waiting on what could potentially be the largest bankruptcy in muni history ... They're supposed to have something out tomorrow," said Peter Delahunt, senior vice president and national sales manager at Raymond James. Delahunt said the county has failed to make counter party payments for some time now and it's possible the deadline could again be postponed. "The insurance companies that are on the hook are pushing for foreclosure so they could take over the sewer system and raise rates, and that may not be politically palatable," he said
But forget about this news flash, nothing is better than Lord Flasheart himself, you have to watch all of this when the boss isn't looking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3jEdW1zYDU&feature=related
Still have not reloaded the market shorts but definately starting to shine the revolver.
Giddy Up
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)