Sex Bomb

When a dog barks do ya kick it!

You better believe it. The market barked loud yesterday and normally I would just kick it but yesterday when I kicked it the bloody thing bit me. Well we covered half when the DOWn was up 110pts and it finished up 230 so we cant always kick the dog and expect it not to bite back.

The remaining shorts have a 5pct stop on them and if that hits we will have banked 43% profit for the month.

Last night I saw live the last white man to sing and dance as good as the departing of the King of rock, Sir Elvis, yes you guessed it, Tom Jones the sex bomb mover and shaker himself, and for a moment even I nearlly threw my undies at him. My girlfriend didnt throw hers and it created our first argument in over a year of knowing each other, I found it disrespectful at the very least to not throw them at the surviving king of rock. It has still left a sour taste in me and I can feel the tension amongst us, but she made me coffee this morning so I think all is forgotten. And as Tom reminded me of my days in London I went for a curry after the show, human bodies just are not designed to consume to much curry and my Indian friends would testify to that, both of em.

If Tom Jones was in the DOW I wouldn't remain as short as I am now. Still hold BGZ 3x bear and SRS 2x bear to 50pct of original stake and long OMEX the pirate ship.

Hey Manhattan property falling off a cliff right now, this is last property shoe to drop and drop hard its the perfect storm, but more later.

Giddy Up

I remember the feeling of losing my first bike

The DOW which I now refer to as the DOWn, its a typo for years that I just discovered, the DOWn is what they refer to on CNBC as the MARKET and it needs to be given some color or colour if your from across the pond.

Just take a panda at some of its constituents, banks of obama both BAC and citibank, GE, General Motors the makers of trucks and tanks, Home Depot, guess what they deal with homes, is up 110pts at the moment, how is that a broad maket index, or is it a true reflection. CNBC pls stop refering to this as the market, it should be the new TARP for holding bad institutions. Mr Markets TARP II, the DOWn.

Well half my positions on BGZ the tripple short on a real market and SRS the double short on real estate have been closed out with good profits of over 50% in a month but I feel like I have lost my first bike. The fact I only hold half my original stake in these shorts reminds me of when my first ever bike which had no breaks on them was stolen and I know who it was. And any young person knows the attachment to their first bike, I cant remember the name of the first women I had intimate relations with, but I remember every single rust stain on that first bike.

Bernakie was awesome on CNBC today if you didnt watch him try and view it, I think he may actually get this issue we are in now and he looked in control and even arrogant as he answered the questions thrown at him, you only look that arrogant when you think you have most of the answers or you don't care, well lets see which one of those two it is.

I am still short but the magnitude is less than it was as I banked half. I feel a major bank is about to become stamped with Obama and as such this little market will run up like a bull out of a gate thinking a piece to the puzzle is solved or at the very least a now known unknown which is probably all these bulls need right now, both of them. Well this might allow me to reload the shorts later on.

Giddy Up

On the left their is nothing right...............

JPM cut dividend to practically zero, ABOUT TIME. Investors remember what a dividend is for it basically says we have NO use for this cashflow we see no capex on the horizon we dont see the need to pay down debt so here have a dividend, it is crazy to think companies on the one hand need to raise capital either debt or equity at expensive measures and on the other pay a non cost efficient distribution of hard earned cash. If you need a dividend sell stock each quarter dont buy companies for a dividend. So JPM about time, your now the first bank to go on the LONG list although to go long now is still to early. The other banks still have the same problem, on the left side of the balance sheet they have nothing right and on the right side they have nothing left, well maybe JPM has something so I am watching you but I aint buying you.

Giddy Up

Rabbit Stew the lost economic indicator

I did my usual research today which is an expresso at Roccos on bleecker in NYC, they use the best beans in town, starbuxs take note and stop burning ya coffee. I then walk around the block until I have an idea. (Most I have ever walked was 4hours and I stopped as a cop car started to follow me you dont mess with american police, if they ask you for the time you GIVE them your watch).

Half way around the block is a school so this is where my daily research started. I asked 5 kids what they were having for lunch and 3 answered sunday roast sandwiches and to my amazement 2 of the 3 were rabbit stew and they were not brothers. Now I dont know any Americans outside of Nevada or Arizona that eats rabbit stew, in NY they use to pat rabbits and sell them in pet shop windows, animals here are more sacred than a cow in the streets of Calcutta. Well things have changed, stews are cheap to make you can use low quality meat boil it for 3hours and it finally becomes chewable. So game is back on the dinner table, in the depression of the 30's gun sales went up and game was back on the menu, last week I reported a stock was up 30pct on a down tape and they sell guns. So my daily walk and talk research has concluded I stay short until the kids start to eat roast beef sandwiches and not cheap game.

The urge to go long for a trade still can not be recommended.

Giddy Up

Thailand

Best actor Sean Penn we nailed at 3.45 and recommended back on 31st of Jan along with Kate Winslett but her price was only a 40pct return which I guess in these markets isnt too bad either.

Could not believe the grunter pretty much playing himself in the wrestler mickey my best friend is a small dog rouke was 1.50. Penn was as convincing as a transvestite in thailand and if anyone has been to thailand you know what I mean, you litterally have to do the Paul Hogan handshake of the line and tackle before you know what ya got. Anyway enough of the past.

50pct of the shorts have 10pct trailing losses on so may get closed out today, if so keep those bullets in the pocket for later and see how this dead cat bounces.

I see 100,000 people protested about the economy in Dublin and a stock in the USA leaped 30pct on Friday as it beat expectations, guess what they sell, thats right GUNS. Social unrest starting to unravel.

But we keep making cash in this predictable market.

Giddy Up

anchovie pizza

A very highly regarded UBS banker has sent through an article stating Citi and BOA to not see the end of MAY. This author must have read our blog weeks ago. Hell I dont mind plagorism how do you think I got an A in quantitative studies at Economics. My friend actually did cheat but the fool cheated from someone dumber than him, well I thought he was dumber, and he as such failed and had the nerve to beat the kid up, such a tough life is rural Australia.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/gone-in-60-days-citi-and-bank-of-america-wont-live-to-see-may/

Well I had a little sneaky side bet with roomate recently, RIMM was trading 58 bucks and I said by mid March (1month) it would break thru 40 and on the back of a tight hand shake and a mans nod of the head like you get before the toss of the super bowl final we engaged.

RIMM today broke thru 40 and unsportingly a lot quicker than it should have, but none the less I have won an anchovie pizza from joes, normally at a hedge fund which is a term we use to avoid casino laws I would have gotten a 500K bonus for that call, but if you have ever had a joes anchovie pizza you would not jump to such a conclussion, not many know how to use anchovies in a pizza but this kid gets it right.

Giddy Up

BAC IIII

Can ya believe BAC actually was up for the day at one stage, we are up over 30pct though since the 2.90 bid.

I have run like a cat on a hot tin roof from this, forget stops, I am all out at 3.90 and if it runs up to 5 good luck to them they deserver the rest of this. Dont get emotional its not our girlfriend we are trading if it keeps running.

Thanks BAC but your still dead.

Giddy Up

BAC III

BAC now 3.50, I cant believe we are making money on this lemon.

Keep moving the stop up, and if you hold this sucker at the close your as greedy as oliver the twist, ya just cant have more.

Stop at 3.30 prey it hits.

BAC II

Stock up 10pct since the trade, stop loss moved up to 3.20 above entry by 10pct. About to close out and run away from this dog with fleas.

BAC

I have made it very clear that Bank Of America is to be the first nationalized bank just pipping Citi, but that doesnt mean I am attached to it like my first bike.

I just bought BAC at 2.94 with a 2.8 stop as the CEO said he sees no reason why bank will be nationalized, now this is total crap and he knows it, its why he blinks like a call girl on the corner of houston and thomson in nyc but I bought them because he cant say that quote and at the same time know he is talking to the govt about the very subject. So its a trade to be CLOSED out at the end of today regardless.

Giddy Up

trade update

BGZ and SRS now up 30-50% respectively since we started writing this, both up 5%+ today, put in a 10% trailing stop from todays levels for half our stake (79-80 price), just incase a dog comes back and takes a bit of the bone, but I think our stop would be safer than the Pope in his little glass car right now.

This is not a change in direction though, still see market a lot lower from todays levels, DOW with a 6 handle on it makes sense, I still cant believe they talk about this index though as it represents nothing about the economy, is weighted by price only, has 30 stocks in it, half of which dont exist and are ghosts like citi. But on TV here they still say the market and DOW as exchangeable words so who am I to buck the trend. DOW 6 handle.

Giddy Up

where are the buyers Del Boy........

The market is just like Del Boy of only fools and horses in the depths of East london trying to graft a sale of a used russian video recorder that recently fell off a Bulgarian truck bound for Sussex and driven by Jamaicans ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L4qrRkmxZg ). NO buyers no bids. Thats the catalyst of where we are at right now, no reason to buy a stock, those that have called the bottom for the last 6months have no cash now to continue buying, what ever cash that is on the sidelines is waiting for a major down move from here or a systematic shock before adding capital. Hell if your 40% down you dont want to jump in now and be another 20% down from here right?

So where are all the buyers. Like a good grandmother you wont see them for awhile normally only around xmas time, they dont need an IPOD, they dont need new clothes, the same ones have fit for 50years, they can also sew and they dont walk enough to by new reboks. So the consumer is still gone and so are the buyers of equities.

Us shorts have one major fear ahead that I can see, and that is how does this market react to citi and say BAC being nationalised. Does it drive banks down only for the market to then jump up dramatically in a rush as shorts cover and the market feels an unknown is now known. I am still pondering this thought for the moment like Ben Adams did just before he patted that great bear on those frosty mountains.

Stay short, keep SRS and BGZ dont cover anything yet and dont take profits yet either we are not in this to make a few dollars we are in this to make enough cash so we can pay cash for those cheap houses we are about to get.

I saw OIL rebound a bit today lets keep an eye on that for a short if it runs up hard. Goldman Slachs still on the short list although I am not short yet it didn't break the 100 mark I am waiting for and has now rushed down. We can be patient on this one.

OMEX is still my only long position, still believe in the pirates for now.

Giddy Up

Giddy Up

A good start to the week as markets starting to collapse and finally discounting the stimulus package for what it is, niente. Keep the shorts on SRS BGZ unfortunately I took half off last week as I thought the dogs might chew on the bone for awhile and buy on the bank bailout but as soon as that fell apart the shorts came rushing back in like an 18yo at his first ever lap dance.

This could be it cowboys and cowgirls, not a lot of reasons to be long now, macro view will worsen and company reports will miss more than they hit so the news flow has to continue to put downward pressure on this market. Remember keep it simple keep your ideas simple and be ready to move with the market. Forget companies surviving the issue is countries, how can emerging markets and better still Eastern European countries full of debt with no real means to raise capital other than via a defunct IMF survive this crisis. This is still to be factored in, USA is very lucky to be able to raise cash with a strong currency (it better hold for their sake and the ROW) but a lot of other countries will have massive davaluation of currencies a run on their financial system to gain even more momentum, possible war but definately riots, crime and general civil unrest. This is how humans respond in these situations. Obviously I HOPE this does not occur but I have never made money on HOPE only facts and simple ideas.

Pick4 system worked a treat on the weekend netting over 7,000 for under a 120 and 70 dollar investment, but it still needs tweaking before running on ALL american tracks, I will write a book on this model.

Giddy Up

Ned Kelly

.........he was Australias version of Robbin Hood only he killed many people and we hung him in the end, but thats what the banks are right now.

Buy FAS tripple long banks, it is trading under 7.60 down 14% so far today over the next couple days I expect noise to come out of the government about housing. Remember Obama is about the people and not wall street which lets face it its just a side show, Obama will focus on the people on main street and banks will get a bounce from this but remember the thesis hold, most banks will HANG in the end. So its a trade not a hold. Stop loss should be 5% from entry point as its down nearlly 15% so far today so that gives us a good cushion to an already belted index ETF.

OMEX is again on discovery channel tonight, our friendly ship wrecked pirates.

250K guarantee pick4 at ghetto land aqueduct on monday so stay focussed on that. These are our major swings of the bat for the remainder of this week.

Giddy Up

I feel like a JETS fan..........

Thats right, full of hope and optimism only to fall flat on my face half way thru the season. To be such a Grizzly Adams Bear and miss yesterdays price move down of 360pts just made me feel like Brett Favre by round 3 when he took off his socks at the end of the Pats game and said to himself, "what have I done, not even my wife will respect me now".

I have dusted off the cobwebs and due to the physcological impact of the move yesterday I have put myself on a 48hr trading ban to calm the impulse decision making that we mere mortals are capable of. I felt like I was caught walking out of my girlfriends sisters room yesterday, but allas I am clearer now.

BAC, Citi, GS GONE, cant survive and will not survive, UBS hanging on by a thread. Its very obvious now that these names suggested will be merged or die by the time the we put on our first round of sun block in the hamptons. Timmy the tax dodger just couldnt think of a real plan yesterday and that is because every instinct and fact he has accumulated since the democrats took power and started looking at the books, tells him and his team, this is HUGE. And MS how come they all of a sudden became the elite like JPM, they have a premium getting built into stock price and its starting to stick out like honeymooners ...... elbow. So we may have to add this to the short list very soon also.

Trades, still buy 3mth puts on GS when they break thru 100 bucks, buy $7 puts in UBS by months end, BAC just watch it jirate like a 16yo belly dancer.

Did you see Chinas export numbers today, mmmm, cant believe people still think they are going to grow at 7%, exorts Y/Y only down a moderate 17% and lets face it thats probably a dodgy number its more like 30%, guess who they export to, USA, so are our Yankie friends going to start buy again soon, not this year, so once again China will continue to subside to below 3% growth and bring down the Asia Pac with it.

Dont forget Sean Penn best actor, Mikey Rouke are you kidding you cant grunt for 90minutes and get an Oscar.

Jet Setting today at Aqueduct stand it out in a P4.

Giddy Up

Timmy the tax dodger

Hey taxman Tim let me give you a tip, under promise and over deliver to a market too scared to even buy a new coffee machine with out 5 signitures signing it off and the CFO writing the check.

Well well well, 3 holes in the ground. What was that Timmy, making the market wait a few weeks for a bank plan that went like this, we have a plan, kinda, sorta well maybe, and its kinda gonna be like this but dont be surprised if it dont work as its a big problem, and stay tuned with more details to come, not sure when but soon and it will be big but might not work. Don't worry Tim I am not against you, I am with you, any guy that can head the IRS and not pay taxes then get the job you have gotten clearly has some mustard.

Keep our eyes on Goldman Slachs we short them soon. They will not want a bar of this DISCLOSURE stuff Timmy the tool man came out with today, they dont want to disclose we paid 2mill bonus to a guy that lost us cash in 2008 because Goldman dont want to loose him.

Giddy UP

Don't chase a whore after she clocked off

Well things are panning out as discussed last week when closing out our shorts for a little while, market has rallied, this is gettting to be as predictable as a school girls prom night.

I am embaressed to admit I even bought shares in BAC on Wednesday at 3.95 with a stop loss tighter than Ben Hurs undies, as it appeared to be the biggest beta stock going into this short little rally but I couldn't sleep that night as I am certain this institution is the first bank to be nationalized, pipping Citi at the post by a short head. Deleveraging has only been going on for 6months and we were ramping it up for 10years. And don't go chasing BAC up at this point as it will be like chasing a prostitute after she just finished an 8hour shift, poor timing.

Don't put the shorts back on yet, lets wait a couple more days then reasses. But the thesis still holds, we are going a long way down from here before we go along way up.

OMEX is going flat after its bounce we got. I am holding for a little longer.

Giddy Up

ps
jet setting wins at aqueduct on wednesday play it in a pick4, do 2 ALL legs and try and pick a winner in the other leg but pin jet setting.

Even A Dog Has To Eat

Hope you followed the advise yesterday and closed out those shorts when the market was actually down but ended up. Give the dogs a bone for a few days, let the wizard Obama wave his magic, let Timmy the I dont pay tax Geither have his moment on Monday. The shorts will run for the hills today covering up which will help artificially run the market up a bit more. So there will be fat on the bone again next week when we load up and short again. And dont worry all our mates out their the other short sellers will reload the gun mid next week. So as ACDC once said, lets give the dog a bone, give the dog a bone.

PS
lets prey Goldman hits a 100 bucks as we can then short that sucker too. Market thinks its good they want to pay back the TARP, its a sign of strength. Well Goldman knows if they pay 500K bonuses to their top guys their business model, what ever it is, has finished. As discussed in a previous blog the talent will not walk away from Goldman they will run for the door with the goldfish like Tom Cruise did in Jerry McGuire asking. WHO IS COMING WITH ME.

Giddy Up

Bank Of Obama

Well Federer let us down, if nadal goes to a 5 setter he wins. Serena did us well and at a good price, Arizona did us well with the +7. OMEX is working for us and has gone up over 20% while the market has fallen. (Watch tonights show on discovery channel)

Our shorts SRS and BGZ are finally starting to rip. We may have a tough part to next week as OBAMA comes out blazing with his final throw of the dice so close out for a few days. Then reload the shorts on Wednesday next week and ride this down. The next major leg in the global markets is down as economic news is more bearish and Unemployment heads to 10pct and China continues to roll over and OIL collapses further below 25USD. Oh and dont get me started on eastern europe, they need SO MUCH foreign investment of which no one has, they do not have the benefit of a strong currency like the very lucky USA does (hope it holds for them) and the eastern european govts do not have the cash reserves or the means to get them like some other countries and for this reason there will be riots and protectionism like we have never seen in recent history.

The downleg is apon us.

Giddy Up

PS
BAC and Citi will be BANK OF OBAMA before May 31st 2009 and UBS is heading to 5USD a share.