Could be a small Miami 1 bedroom apartment in it for us but I am starting to warm to this mountain of lead on wheels
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbn9NG1VhPw
FORD
GM gone or going, Chrysler gone or going, Toyota, well it ain't American is it. Obama clearly wants green cars so happy to take over GM and get the team to focus on energy efficient cars at a loss, he has a 10yr plan here, anyway that will mean Ford will be the sole truly independent American car company. They appear the strongest, never asked for money from government, did a recent equity raising. Yes market and consumer broke so no one is buying a car but that's in the price. If we can get Ford back down near $4 (currently $5.25), it could be one of those, put $ into it and never look at it until the Olympics in 2012. Then see if we have $$$$$ worth of Ford shares. Then we buy a $300,000 apartment in Florida with $$$$$$ down. Also Mr Obama will not be able to nationalize all the automakers they will want ONE national symbol of a US car, too much pressure, and trust me 1 in 3 houses in America have an American flag hanging out of the window, so they are very patriotic, not like us Australians that would sell our souls for a hot meat pie and a cold beer. So they will eventually buy America goods again in a patriotic fashion.
Now this goes against everything I believe about consumers not buying anything besides low quality ham and cheese and flour sales going up as they are baking their own bread at home, consumer is on its knees but one day their 10 credit card wallets will open up and Ford could be the, put it in the bottom of your drawer stock that you do not look at until 2012.
Giddy Up
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Jim Morrison
As Jim Morrison said, this could be the end my friend. I see the DOWn hitting 7700 before it's next move up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFK1yKfiGo
Sitting in the bar last night smashing down my usual I got into a discussion that didn't involve Latin women, horse racing or sports gambling so the odds where I was in a discussion way out of my depth.
It's a bull market he said. We have bottomed. You don't want to miss this move. I agreed on a few points, one being that the barmaids blouse had more buttons undone than done, and that a red bra under a white shirt is the only bull sign I can see.
Look every dog has its day and every day has a dog and the last 2 months even I mentioned to not stand in front of this freight train. But now we sell, now we short as this recent run will run out of steam so short it now as we did 2days ago with the triple short banks FAZ.
Foreclosures up 30pct on a year ago. Ah that's bigger then ben hurs undies. The change reaction to that is banks, consumer wealth, confidence will suffer a bit more pain.
Oh and one last point a study in the UK said that 1 in 3 could be effected by the swine flu. Surely that can't be right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyZSckIjp4c
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHFK1yKfiGo
Sitting in the bar last night smashing down my usual I got into a discussion that didn't involve Latin women, horse racing or sports gambling so the odds where I was in a discussion way out of my depth.
It's a bull market he said. We have bottomed. You don't want to miss this move. I agreed on a few points, one being that the barmaids blouse had more buttons undone than done, and that a red bra under a white shirt is the only bull sign I can see.
Look every dog has its day and every day has a dog and the last 2 months even I mentioned to not stand in front of this freight train. But now we sell, now we short as this recent run will run out of steam so short it now as we did 2days ago with the triple short banks FAZ.
Foreclosures up 30pct on a year ago. Ah that's bigger then ben hurs undies. The change reaction to that is banks, consumer wealth, confidence will suffer a bit more pain.
Oh and one last point a study in the UK said that 1 in 3 could be effected by the swine flu. Surely that can't be right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyZSckIjp4c
Giddy Up
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Hitman Hatton
After 3 heavy days on the whiskey at the Kentucky Derby and loosing my shirt which thank fully I borrowed from a true friend the day before, I took the bus to downtown Louisville, Kentucky to watch the Hatton fight, and yes you know the rest. Full as a boot on a rainy day I heard a mate call his bookie with the words, give me 2grand on Hatton to win by knockout. I couldn't believe the words that followed from my mouth, can I have 500 of that.
10seconds into round 1 you could hear me yelling out, stop the fight stop the fight someone is going to get killed, yes Ricky the poorly named Hitman Hatton got hit and like GM looked dead.
Leaving the bar I sounded a bit like Pacman in this clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIl8Q_br8bI&NR=1
Nothing but mumbled words strung together in an audible fashion.
Well the markets are like Hitman right now, having shorted OIL at 50 bucks I am nearly out for the count like Ricky but alas we still have cash in the coffers from our earlier plays and today after some sessions to the gym and a step away from the game I have come back to see some amazing opportunities.
GM executives sold shares today, one sold 100,000 shares to collect just over 100K now that is a sign of the captain of the ship yelling out, every man for himself as the captain grabs the last life jacket and jumps. I see banks raising capital and some say that's a good sign, well its a sign of an industry that wants YOU to prop them up, you only sell for 3 reasons, 1 is you think your price will get lower in the future, the other is you need money to survive and the final one is opportunistic, to raise cash to buy other institutions, which when you think about it means you believe other banks will go lower so you want to raise cash now to pounce later. Either way all 3 say short banks for now.
I loaded up on FAZ last night triple short banks and like Ricky Hatton they wont come back to haunt us for awhile.
Giddy Up
10seconds into round 1 you could hear me yelling out, stop the fight stop the fight someone is going to get killed, yes Ricky the poorly named Hitman Hatton got hit and like GM looked dead.
Leaving the bar I sounded a bit like Pacman in this clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIl8Q_br8bI&NR=1
Nothing but mumbled words strung together in an audible fashion.
Well the markets are like Hitman right now, having shorted OIL at 50 bucks I am nearly out for the count like Ricky but alas we still have cash in the coffers from our earlier plays and today after some sessions to the gym and a step away from the game I have come back to see some amazing opportunities.
GM executives sold shares today, one sold 100,000 shares to collect just over 100K now that is a sign of the captain of the ship yelling out, every man for himself as the captain grabs the last life jacket and jumps. I see banks raising capital and some say that's a good sign, well its a sign of an industry that wants YOU to prop them up, you only sell for 3 reasons, 1 is you think your price will get lower in the future, the other is you need money to survive and the final one is opportunistic, to raise cash to buy other institutions, which when you think about it means you believe other banks will go lower so you want to raise cash now to pounce later. Either way all 3 say short banks for now.
I loaded up on FAZ last night triple short banks and like Ricky Hatton they wont come back to haunt us for awhile.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Matador
I know what it is like to feel like a Matador or at least one that is hit by a bull.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq6k6rDVl4A
After aggressively loading up on the triple short banks FAZ I got closed out as it went down like a led balloon, then I check at the close and see FAZ actually finished at the high of the day and the market sold off. It truly felt like a bull had run over me.
Don't worry though market still overvalued, banks have run up like the mess is behind us, when we are actually just reaching the eye of the storm. Unemployment rising + foreclosures to rise = banks loose. Keynesian II.
My friend who creates his own clothes with a very unique style which you could travel the world and not find, is closing down next week. His shirts are better than anything you can find in Manhattan but alas they are priced at $250-$350, which is about the same as a GM car in today's market. So he stood no chance, as we smashed down a few bottles of cheap $5.99 wine (yes 5.99 wine exists) and talked about the fact that talent never dies only dreams get faded, he told me that the rent on the commercial building for the business had not been paid for 3months and prior to that they were paying just as much as they could.
So if you thought we had seen the bottom of commercial property, I don't even think we have seen the start of it, we are not even in the eye of the commercial property storm. Good luck if your a bank lending to the owner of a commercial property.
Giddy Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq6k6rDVl4A
After aggressively loading up on the triple short banks FAZ I got closed out as it went down like a led balloon, then I check at the close and see FAZ actually finished at the high of the day and the market sold off. It truly felt like a bull had run over me.
Don't worry though market still overvalued, banks have run up like the mess is behind us, when we are actually just reaching the eye of the storm. Unemployment rising + foreclosures to rise = banks loose. Keynesian II.
My friend who creates his own clothes with a very unique style which you could travel the world and not find, is closing down next week. His shirts are better than anything you can find in Manhattan but alas they are priced at $250-$350, which is about the same as a GM car in today's market. So he stood no chance, as we smashed down a few bottles of cheap $5.99 wine (yes 5.99 wine exists) and talked about the fact that talent never dies only dreams get faded, he told me that the rent on the commercial building for the business had not been paid for 3months and prior to that they were paying just as much as they could.
So if you thought we had seen the bottom of commercial property, I don't even think we have seen the start of it, we are not even in the eye of the commercial property storm. Good luck if your a bank lending to the owner of a commercial property.
Giddy Up
Monday, April 20, 2009
Is it still a point and shoot?
YES
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Tough call on this market running all the way down to our YTD lows but we did strongly point out on April 13th post, "can't wait for those provisions for commercial loans" on the banks books to come out. Well BAC did not let us down.
The market is becoming like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd-MpXCMcIs
Now we might get a few people calling themselves investors trying to bottom fish today's market down turn so let them have the first half hour of trade tomorrow, then if you don't have any shorts, load up, still more meat on this dogs bone. Also a lot of the recent up turn as we mentioned a few weeks ago is shorts covering, well I think today might get them back as the gun is being reloaded.
Remember unemployment going to 10pct in the USA is our main back drop, you work out the unemployment rate you work out the economy, housing, spending and even China, you get the picture. Don't bother listening to the text book guys that say unemployment is a lagging indicator, its only lagging when it stops going up, well its still going up, so for me its the only forward indicator we have that is relevant, but don't worry those PhD quants only have a small weighting in their factor models for unemployment as they see it as lagging the would rather use consumer confidence, well we don't have any consumers so I don't know how that survey is even populated.
Obama can do what he wants and Benny the bull Benankie can do what he wants but as long as I think a house that I can afford to buy might be cheaper next week then I am not buying it. If unemployment keeps going up then houses and property or any big ticket item for that matter has to keep going down. Stop unemployment and even harder stop the feeling that you MIGHT be unemployed and houses than might be bought. Until then, property keeps going down, and remember GM still has not officially gone bankrupt if you think 10pct is not doable.
On CNBC they talk about the cut on the arm but not the knife wedged in the neck. We need to free up credit they say, banks need to lend, so lets keep these rates low, look at all the money the fed throwing at it and so on. Well who is borrowing to buy a house that is still falling in price that's the issue. Give me 4pct interest rates or give me zero percent, if I believe the thing I am buying is 200K today but will be 190K tomorrow then the interest rate is irrelevant I ain't buying, its a term Econonomist call Velocity. Money supply times velocity = action, they say, velocity is the need a consumer feels to spend in other words, the higher it is the more likely we are to get that new fed pumped money and give it to someone else for and IPOD. Well money supply is going up but velocity is moving like a snail on a dark night, in a desert, with an eye firmly shut, trying to crawl up a rock with a massive head wind and its tail tied to a car driving in the opposite direction. Oh and I forgot to mention the rock has moss on it.
JAPAN
A friend of mine in America has a 20K debt on his credit card, I did not even know you could get such a limit or even understand why you need one that big, as a restaurant bill is a couple hundred and an IPOD is a couple hundred and I can fly back to OZ for a grand so why do I need 20K limit, to buy a car? Anyway she has decided to not pay the debt back. Now I didn't even know that you could decide such a thing, in my ignorance I have discovered that you don't even get jail, you only get a line on a credit report that says your not a good borrower. So if you do not live in America and therefore may not understand the general psyche of my American friends then maybe I just helped you.
Giddy UP
Thursday, April 16, 2009
If you want cash then read this
April 27th case schiller index on property values ON MANHATTAN property ipo's. UMM and DMM
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Now that should be all you need to know but if you want some mustard on your hot dog then read on.
Worse sector in the world right now, FINANCE.
Worse sector to get a job right now, FINANCE.
Per capita the most populated city in the world with the highest ratio of finance employees, MANHATTAN.
Last property values in the USA to show signs of falling, MANHATTAN.
Those that do still work in this sector, what has happened to their pay, bonus near zero.
These high flying wall street guys what do they do with salary, spend it on prada bags for the mistresses.
What do they do with their BONUSES, they pay all major expenses in advance as salary is to have fun with bonuses are to make their marks in life with.
Well no bonuses means a lot of properties not getting that lump sum principal and interest payment in 2009 and these guys DO NOT have savings, its the only place in the world where people earn 500K a year and have no cash.
Manhattan property still to fall 30pct from today's level for all of the above and more. Oh for every 1 finance guy employed they say it creates 2-3 jobs in the service sector in this city so more downward pressure on prices in Manhattan.
KISS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnqUAbGMjLI
Keep It Simple Stupid, this is the last shoe we can really make some coin on and it's a back up the truck move and do not trade it, we run this sucker for the entire 2009 year. My honduran huricane hussy works in real estate and I can tell you first hand the sellers are stuck in dream land and have not marked to market and the buyers are waiting for deals and the difference is amazing. A 2mill property got an offer for 1.6 in November last year and the landlord said I do not have to entertain such an offer, I would rather lock up my apartment and put in moth balls than to sell for that price. Well it now lists for 1.65 and I bet 1.6 he would take but he will only be offered 1.4.
Giddy Up
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Pupets running the mupets
A nice day yesterday with FAZ triple short banks, up 20pct but I will be closing that out some time today. Bought at 9.15 now 11 will move stop up to 5pct from it's open today.
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
We just can not take on this government and now that they have agreed to disclose how ALL 19 big USA banks have passed the stress test and how, kind of says to me this is one real puppet show going on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21OH0wlkfbc&feature=related
Firstly this stress test is no test at all it sounds like just a market manipulation strategy to increase confidence. Imagine in a couple months if another bank goes under or gets a massive government injection and share holder dilution if the government say they pass the stress test now but in a few months the bank has their hand out again. That could be an opportunity worth waiting for.
Either way I can't take on the government even if I know they are just playing a confidence game with this bank test, lets face it we all know they are not going to say, citi, bac etc failed are they now. If a bank is strong and need capital they can raise it, if a bank is weak and need capital they go to government, hows that for a stress test, let the market decide but alas this is not going to happen.
Giddy Up
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